2026-08-19-莱坊-CEE_Investment_Market_h1_2026_6页_1mb

Investment Market Summary - H1 2026

Core Content

The document provides an overview and outlook for the commercial property investment market in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) for the first half of 2026. It highlights the improving macroeconomic fundamentals, the resilience of occupier markets, and the increasing attractiveness of the region for both domestic and international investors. The CEE market is positioned as a compelling investment destination with a favorable risk-return profile and access to high-quality assets at attractive prices.

Main Points

Macroeconomic Outlook

• The CEE region is experiencing stronger economic growth compared to the EU and eurozone averages.
• Poland is expected to grow by 3.7% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027, serving as the regional growth engine.
• The Czech Republic is projected to grow from 2.2% to 2.7% in 2026 and 2027, showing a stable recovery.
• Inflation is expected to moderate, supporting monetary easing and capital deployment.
• Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary remain more exposed to persistent price pressures due to energy volatility and higher import dependency.
• Hungary has seen a notable decline in 10-year government bond yields, indicating reduced political risk and improved investor sentiment.

Investment Activity

• Total investment volume in CEE reached over €5.5 billion in H1 2026, up 6% year-on-year.
• Poland led the region with 55% of the total investment, followed by the Czech Republic (26%), Hungary (11%), and Romania/Slovakia (4% each).
• The office sector accounted for 27% of the total investment volume, with strong activity in secondary markets like Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia.
• Retail was the second-largest asset class, contributing 25% of the total investment volume, with Poland as the main driver.
• Industrial made up 19% of the total investment, with Poland accounting for 75% of this volume.
• The living (Build-to-Rent) sector gained traction, reaching 21% of total investment volume, with notable transactions in Poland and Prague.

Investor Trends

• Domestic and regional capital are the primary drivers of investment in the CEE market.
• Czech investors are the most active, contributing 36% of total investment in CEE commercial real estate.
• International investors, including US, Asian, and South African capital, are gradually returning to the region, alongside Western European investors like French SCPI funds.
• The region's improved fundamentals, pricing transparency, and liquidity are attracting more cross-border capital.

Market Outlook

• The office market is expected to recover, with prime yields remaining stable and investor demand strengthening.
• Retail investment is projected to continue its growth, driven by strong consumer fundamentals and the revival of large-scale shopping center deals.
• Industrial investment will maintain its appeal due to long-term income stability and low risk.
• The living sector is anticipated to see further growth, particularly in prime Warsaw offices and Prague build-to-rent assets.
• The Czech Republic is expected to see a moderation in transaction volumes but remain a key driver of investment activity.
• Hungary is projected to surpass 2025 investment levels, driven by office and retail activity.
• Romania's investment activity is expected to rise, supported by the record retail transaction at the beginning of July.

Key Information

• Growth Projections: Poland is forecast to grow at 3.7% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027, while the Czech Republic is expected to grow from 2.2% to 2.7%.
• Investment Volume: CEE investment volume reached €5.5 billion in H1 2026, with Poland accounting for 55% of this.
• Asset Classes: Offices, retail, and industrial are the top asset classes, with living (BTR) and hotel sectors also contributing.
• Yields: Prime yields are expected to remain stable, creating an attractive entry point for investors.
• Investor Activity: Domestic investors continue to lead, with international investors showing renewed interest.
• Future Outlook: The CEE market is expected to continue its recovery, with investment volumes likely to exceed 2025 levels in 2026.

Summary

The CEE commercial property investment market is showing signs of recovery and increased attractiveness, supported by improving macroeconomic fundamentals and resilient occupier demand. Poland leads the region with strong growth and investment activity, while the Czech Republic and Hungary also show promising trends. The office and retail sectors are at the forefront of investment, with industrial and living (BTR) assets gaining traction. The region's favorable risk-return profile, along with access to high-quality assets and improving liquidity, is drawing more international capital. As the market progresses into the next phase of the investment cycle, prime assets are expected to see stronger demand and competition, potentially leading to yield compression and capital appreciation.