2025-06-11-Jefferies-任天堂公司（7974）_有史以来最快的游戏机发布；Switch2在4天内售出350万台；重申买入_12页_628kb

Nintendo (7974 JP / NTDOY) Equity Research Summary

Date: June 11, 2025
Rating: BUY
Price Target (JPY): ¥20,780 (+72% from prior day's closing price)

Key Highlights

1. Switch 2 Sales Performance:

   • Sold over 3.5 million units in the first four days (June 5–9, 2025), the fastest console launch ever.
   • Stronger than prior consoles:
     • Switch (1 month: 2.74 million units).
     • PS4 (2 weeks: 2.1 million units).
     • PS5 (1 month: 3.4 million units).

2. Financial Forecasts:

   • Revenue & Profit Growth: Raises FY3/26–28 hardware sales forecast to 69 million units (vs. prior 66 million).
   • EPS Growth: Predicts 27%–61% EPS growth over 2025–2028.
   • OP Growth: >4x operating profit growth expected within 3 years.

3. Valuation:

   • Price Target: ¥20,780 = (30x FY3/27 EPS + 50% of excess cash).
   • Upside/Downside Scenarios:
     • Upside: ¥30,350 (base case EPS +25%, 35x PE).
     • Downside: ¥12,870 (base case EPS -25%, 25x PE).

4. Catalysts:

   • Initial weekend sales momentum likely to sustain strong earnings growth.
   • Potential supply shortages due to high demand could drive stock performance similar to Wii/Switch launches.

5. Market Position:

   • Switch 2 trajectory suggests a steeper growth curve than its predecessor.
   • Analysts reiterate that Nintendo is moving toward a "3-player oligopoly" market.

6. Risks:

   • Faster-than-expected cyclical decline in Switch sales or weaker software performance could reverse gains.
   • Supply constraints for first-year production (e.g., 15m units).

Analyst Notes

• Digital Sales: Increasing digital sales (63% of platform revenue) may sustain profit margins long-term.
• Past Performance: Wii launch (2006–07) saw stock +300% YoY; Switch (2017–18) +100% YoY.