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Automotive Industry Semiconductor Outlook Summary

Core Content

The automotive industry is undergoing a significant transformation in its semiconductor usage, driven by the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS). This shift is expected to increase the semiconductor content in vehicles, even as total production remains stable. As a result, the semiconductor supply chain is under pressure, with some key components experiencing persistent shortages through 2026.

Main Points

1. Market Growth and Demand Trends

• The automotive semiconductor market is projected to grow at an annual rate of over 9% through 2030.
• BEVs (Battery Electric Vehicles) are expected to dominate the EV market by 2026, with twice the semiconductor content of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles due to the need for discrete-power and analog chips.
• ADAS Level 2+ is anticipated to have the highest penetration growth through 2030, increasing demand for logic and memory chips.
• The auto segment is expected to outperform the overall semiconductor market with a 11% CAGR from 2021 to 2026, compared to the 5% average for the total market.

2. Semiconductor Content and Supply Challenges

• Analog and MEMS chips will face significant supply challenges due to limited capacity investments and geopolitical uncertainties.
• Discrete-power chips may see increased demand with the adoption of 800-volt vehicles, but there may be insufficient wide-bandgap manufacturing capacity.
• Logic chips on 20nm to 45nm nodes will drive demand for computing in centralized electrical/electronic architectures, reducing pressure on older, larger nodes (>55nm).
• Approximately 50% of future fabrication capacity is planned in mainland China, which could pose risks for Western OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers if access is restricted.

3. Supply Chain Risks and Strategic Adjustments

• Geopolitical tensions between the US and China are affecting semiconductor supply, with the US restricting sales of certain lithography tools to China.
• Western OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers are at risk due to limited access to Chinese manufacturing capacity.
• There is underinvestment in mature semiconductor capacity outside of China, due to high depreciation costs and lower profitability.

4. Automotive OEM Strategies

• Direct agreements with semiconductor developers and foundries are becoming more common (e.g., BMW with Inova Semiconductors, GM with Wolfspeed, Renault with STMicroelectronics).
• Focus locally is being pursued by companies like Toyota (Denso investment in Japan), Ford (collaboration with Global Foundries), and GM (collaboration with seven suppliers).
• Planning ahead involves partnerships for codevelopment of semiconductors and software (e.g., BMW/Mercedes with Qualcomm/NVIDIA, VW with STMicroelectronics/TSMC, Stellantis with Foxconn).
• Own it yourself strategies are being adopted by Tesla (proprietary Full Self-Driving chipset), Hyundai (in-house semiconductor development), and BYD (vertical integration in high-power semiconductors).

Key Information

• Supply-demand imbalance persists in nonlogic chips, especially analog and MEMS, due to limited capacity and geopolitical constraints.
• Cost efficiency is a key driver in the adoption of advanced logic nodes, with 28nm being the current sweet spot for cost per density.
• Inventory optimization and collaborative supply chain strategies are essential to mitigate semiconductor supply risks.
• Strategic alignment between product and semiconductor strategies is necessary to reduce dependency on uncertain supply sources.

Recommendations

• Build resilient supply chains by using crisis-response centers, investing in collaboration with Tier 1 suppliers and IDMs, and optimizing inventory plans.
• Align semiconductor strategy with product strategy by evaluating platform designs, sharing chip development efforts, and codeveloping next-generation ICs.
• Shape future positioning by developing a clear place in the value chain and planning build, buy, or partner strategies.
• Inform policymakers with robust data and analyses to highlight the impact of their decisions on the automotive semiconductor supply chain.

Contact Information

• Aakash Arora – Managing Director and Partner, Boston – arora.aakash@bcg.com
• Albert Waas – Managing Director and Partner, Munich – waas.albert@bcg.com
• Karl Breidienbach – Associate Director, Munich – breidenbach.karl@bcg.com
• Thomas Lopez – Principal, Dallas – lopez.thomas@bcgfed.com
• Ramiro Palma – Managing Director and Partner, Austin – palma.ramiro@bcg.com
• Jimmy Feng – Managing Director and Partner, Taipei – feng.jimmy@bcg.com
• Harrison Xue – Partner, Dallas – xue.harrison@bcg.com
• Minhal Dhanjy – Consultant, Austin – dhanjy.minhal@bcg.com

Disclaimer

This document is intended for internal use by the Client and is not to be distributed to third parties without prior written consent. It is not a substitute for professional legal, accounting, or tax advice. BCG does not provide fairness opinions or valuations and makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information provided. The contents are subject to change and should not be relied upon as definitive forecasts.