2015年-世界发展银行全球_Morocco___Social_Protection_and_Labor_Diagnostic_35页_957kb

报告摘要

Morocco Social Protection and Labor Diagnostic Summary

I. Country Context

Core Content

Morocco's macroeconomic framework is generally appropriate, with economic growth averaging 4.3% between 2010 and 2013. The country has made significant progress in reducing poverty and promoting shared prosperity, with extreme poverty nearly eradicated and relative poverty declining from 15.3% to 6.2% over the same period. However, nearly 20% of the population, or 6.3 million people, still live in poverty or are at risk of falling into it.

Key Indicators

GDP Growth: 3.6% (2010), 5.0% (2011), 2.7% (2012), 4.4% (2013), and projected to remain in the 4.6-4.9% range.
Investment: Averaged 35.0% of GDP from 2010 to 2012, with a slight decline to 32.9% in 2015.
Domestic Savings: Declined from 25.2% in 2010 to 19.3% in 2013, but is projected to rise.
Unemployment Rate: Remained around 9% of the labor force (about 1 million people) from 2000 to 2013, with high levels in urban areas and among youth.
CPI Inflation: Averaged 1.9% in 2013 and is projected to rise to 2.3% by 2017.
Public Debt: Expected to remain in the 62-64% of GDP range, highlighting the need for fiscal reforms.
Subsidy Outlays: Declined from 6.6% in 2012 to 3.2% in 2017.
Current Account Balance: Negative and is projected to improve.

Challenges

High inequality, with a Gini coefficient of 0.41.
Regional disparities in poverty rates, with some regions having poverty rates up to 40% higher than the national average.
Cities, which generate 75% of GDP, have pockets of entrenched poverty and high unemployment.
Morocco is facing a demographic and epidemiological transition with rising chronic diseases.

Key Points

Morocco spends less on healthcare than similar economies.
The country is in a rapid demographic transition with increasing chronic disease prevalence.
The current social protection system is ineffective, favoring the wealthy and supply chain networks.
Social assistance programs are limited in scope and targeting, while the social insurance system has limited coverage and is financially unsustainable.
Social security coverage is less than 20% of the employed population.

II. Labor Markets

Core Content

Morocco has one of the lowest employment rates in the MENA region, with a significant portion of the population not participating in the labor force. Informal employment is widespread, and employment quality remains a major issue.

Key Findings

Labor Force Participation: Fell by 11% between 1999 and 2013, primarily affecting women and youth.
Unemployment: Remained around 9% of the labor force (about 1 million people) from 2000 to 2013. Youth unemployment is particularly high, with 18% for those aged 18-24 in 2012.
Unemployment Composition: Most unemployed are men (72%), aged 15-34 (81%), urban residents (79%), and with at most upper secondary education (82%).
Long-Term Unemployment: About 70% of the unemployed have been jobless for more than 12 months.
Informal Employment: 82% of all workers in Morocco did not contribute to social security in 2010, with 96% in rural areas and 68% in urban areas.
Employment Quality: 67% of workers are without employment contracts, and 70% of employed individuals in the private sector are underemployed or seeking job changes.

Challenges

Jobs Creation: Only about 90,000 jobs were created annually between 2004 and 2013, far below the required 224,000 new entrants per year until 2020.
Youth Inactivity: There are about 2.7 million NEETS (Not in Employment, Education, or Training) among youth aged 15-29.
Sectoral Job Creation: The majority of jobs are created in the services and construction sectors, while agriculture and manufacturing suffer from net job destruction.
Education to Employment Gap: School-to-job transition is problematic, especially for first-time job-seekers and the long-term unemployed.

III. Constraints to Employment Creation

Core Content

Morocco faces significant constraints in creating employment opportunities, including a complex regulatory environment, high labor costs, and a fragmented social security system.

Key Constraints

Business Environment: Morocco ranks 89th out of 189 economies in the 2014 Doing Business Report. The legal and regulatory environment is not conducive to small enterprise creation or formalization.
Skilled Labor Shortage: Strategic sectors and public service delivery face a lack of skilled labor, with 35% of firms citing this as a major constraint in 2008.
Labor Regulations: High payroll taxes and restrictive fixed-term contract laws discourage formal employment and affect youth and women disproportionately.
Minimum Wages: Among the highest in the world, with minimum wages reaching 54.5% of the average wage in the formal private sector in 2012 and 77% of GNP per worker in 2013.
Dismissal Procedures: Complex and costly, with high firing costs and a generous severance formula that can be a financial burden for firms.
Social Security System: Fragmented and inefficient, with a 36% labor tax rate and limited coverage for the workforce.

IV. Employment Policies

Core Content

Morocco has implemented various employment and investment policies aimed at improving the business environment and increasing job creation.

Key Policies

National Emerging Industries Agreement (PNEI): Launched in 2008, aiming to create 220,000 jobs by 2015. By 2012, it had created about 164,560 jobs.
Sector-Specific Strategies:
- Agriculture: Plan Maroc Vert (2008-2020)
- Fishing: Plan Halieutis (2009-2020)
- Tourism: Tourism Vision 2020 (2010-2020)
- IT and Off-shoring: Maroc Numeric (2009-2013)
- Trade: RAWAJ (2008-2020)
- Logistics: National Strategy of Competitiveness and Logistics (2008-2015)
Education Reforms: Aimed at improving student orientation, graduation rates, and linking education to industry needs. However, implementation has been slow, and universities often do not utilize their full budgets.
Vocational Training: The Vocational Training Department, through OFPPT, has introduced policies to better align training with economic needs. These include workplace-based training and targeted programs for vulnerable groups.