undp-《2021年全球展望报告：气候雄心的状态》（英）-2021.11-52页_2mb

Summary of the NDC Global Outlook Report 2021

Core Content

The NDC Global Outlook Report 2021 by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) evaluates the global progress on climate ambition, particularly focusing on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The report outlines the status of climate action, highlights the role of vulnerable nations, and emphasizes the importance of finance, inclusivity, and implementation in achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Main Findings

• Global Climate Ambition is Rising:

  • The number of countries that have enhanced or intend to enhance their NDCs has increased significantly, from 75 in 2019 to 178 in 2021.
  • 90% of the world is submitting or planning to submit enhanced NDCs, indicating a global shift in climate priorities.
  • 92% of all Parties to the Paris Agreement have submitted second-generation NDCs, showing strong alignment with UNFCCC deadlines.

• Quality and Inclusivity of NDCs:

  • Second-generation NDCs are of higher quality than their predecessors, but finance remains a key barrier, especially for developing countries.
  • Inclusivity plays a significant role in driving climate ambition, with many countries adopting whole-of-government and whole-of-society approaches.
  • However, not all countries have fully embraced inclusivity, and some still lack clear intentions or are not raising ambition.

• Climate Action and Development Goals:

  • NDCs can serve as a blueprint for sustainable development and green recovery, especially in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Many countries are now integrating climate action with post-pandemic recovery, including investments in health, education, clean energy, and nature-based solutions.
  • The ratchet mechanism of the Paris Agreement is working, with a clear trend of increasing ambition over time.

• Key Challenges:

  • Despite progress, current NDCs are not sufficient to meet the 1.5°C warming limit.
  • Global emissions are projected to be 16% higher in 2030 than in 2010, far short of the 45% reduction needed to reach net-zero by 2050.
  • Climate finance is a critical issue, with developed nations failing to meet their $100 billion annual commitment by 2030, leading to a shortfall of $68–$75 billion over six years.
  • Fossil fuel subsidies remain high, with $423 billion spent annually, which is four times the amount needed to support poor countries.

• Role of Vulnerable Nations:

  • Vulnerable countries are leading in terms of climate ambition, fulfilling the role expected from the G20.
  • These nations are often the most affected by climate change and are pushing for more inclusive and ambitious climate strategies.

• UNDP's Climate Promise:

  • UNDP has been instrumental in supporting NDC enhancement through the Climate Promise initiative, which now includes 120 countries and 35 partners.
  • The initiative focuses on quality criteria such as inclusivity, ownership, robustness, and feasibility.
  • It is supported by core contributors including Germany, Sweden, Spain, Italy, and the European Union.

• Country Case Studies:

  • Antigua and Barbuda: Transitioning to green energy will create new job opportunities and reduce reliance on fossil fuels.
  • Somalia: Climate action is essential for peace and stability.
  • Chile: Climate and green financing support its carbon neutrality goal by 2050.
  • Iraq: Empowering women is a key strategy for a green and sustainable future.
  • North Macedonia: The private sector is leading the green economy.
  • Nigeria: Youth are driving ambitious and high-quality NDCs.
  • Pakistan: Aiming for a clean and green energy future.
  • Papua New Guinea: Sustainable forest management is crucial for emission reduction and community resilience.
  • Zimbabwe: Focused on measuring green job creation.
  • Moldova: Building national and international synergies.

Key Information

• NDCs are country-specific climate commitments under the Paris Agreement.
• The ratchet mechanism allows for regular updates and increased ambition every five years.
• Climate finance is a major obstacle, especially for developing countries.
• The Climate Promise is the largest global initiative supporting NDC revision.
• Inclusivity and engagement are essential for successful NDC implementation.
• The report highlights the need for urgent and bold action to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

Conclusion

The 2021 NDC Global Outlook provides a comprehensive overview of the global climate ambition landscape, showing that while progress is being made, much more is needed to meet the Paris Agreement's goals. The report calls for greater political will, financial support, and inclusive processes to ensure that NDCs are not just ambitious, but also implementable and impactful.