那提西银行-法国-经济理论-自2008-2009年危机以来，法国的工资增长过快吗？-20180323-6页_575kb

Flash Economics Summary: Wage Increases in France Post-2008-2009 Crisis

Core Content

This document analyzes whether real wages in France have increased too much since the 2008-2009 financial crisis, and how this has affected employment and corporate investment. It compares historical patterns with the post-crisis period, focusing on income distribution, profit margins, corporate profitability, and employment trends.

Main Points

1. Historical Pattern: Wage Increases Post-Recessions

• In the past, after recessions in France, real wages increased too quickly, which hindered employment recovery and corporate investment.
• Examples include:
  • 1990-1992 recession: Real wages rose rapidly from 1995 to 1999, outpacing productivity. Employment started to improve only after 1999, and investment resumed in 1998.
  • 2001-2002 recession: Real wages began to rise in 2003. Unemployment increased until 2005, and investment resumed in 2007.
  • 2008-2009 recession: Real wages outpaced productivity until 2010. Unemployment remained high until 2014, and investment started to recover only in 2016.

2. Wage Trends Since 2008-2009 Crisis

• Since 2014, there has been wage moderation, with a decline in unemployment and a recovery in employment.
• However, the wage share of GDP has not returned to pre-crisis levels, particularly in the services sector.
• Real wages (from the company's perspective, using the GDP deflator) have not been corrected, while consumer price deflators have improved due to falling oil prices.

3. Profit Margins

• Industry has seen a recovery in profit margins, while services continue to experience declining margins.
• The decline in services profit margins may be due to increased competition and price reductions, which could be a positive development.
• Telecom sector is highlighted as an example where price competition has led to falling profit margins.

4. Corporate Profitability and Investment Capacity

• Profitability of French companies has not regained its 2007 level.
• Self-financing rate (cash flow to investment) remains below 100%, indicating reliance on debt for investment.
• Investment rate is low, suggesting limited capacity to finance growth.
• Employment has increased since 2015, showing positive labor market trends.

Key Findings

• Wage moderation has occurred since 2014, which is positive for employment recovery.
• However, income distribution remains skewed in favor of wages over profits, particularly in services, which has not been corrected.
• Profit margins in services have fallen, possibly due to price competition, which may be beneficial for consumers.
• Corporate profitability and investment capacity are still below pre-crisis levels, indicating ongoing financial constraints.
• Employment growth has been positive since 2015, but investment remains limited.

Conclusion

• The document suggests that wage moderation is needed in France to support further economic recovery and corporate investment.
• While employment has improved, profitability and investment capacity have not fully recovered, and income distribution has not reverted to pre-crisis levels.
• Wage increases have been moderated since 2014, but inequitable distribution remains a challenge, especially in services.

Disclaimer

• This document is intended for professionals and qualified investors only.
• It is strictly confidential and not a personalized investment recommendation.
• No liability is accepted by Natixis or its affiliates for the accuracy or completeness of the information.
• Market conditions, prices, and margins are subject to change.
• Past performance is not indicative of future results.
• Quantitative models are used for analysis but do not guarantee outcomes.
• The document is not an offer or solicitation for any investment.

Regulatory Information

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• The document is available to Professional Clients only in Dubai under the DFSA.

Final Note

• The views expressed in the document reflect personal opinions of the authors and do not represent the views of Natixis.
• No responsibility is accepted for differences in valuation or regulatory compliance.