2004-10-26-皮尤-Swing_Voters_Slow_to_Decide,_Still_Cross-Pressured_15页_50kb

Summary

Pew Research Center conducted a follow-up survey of swing voters in the days before the 2004 presidential election. About half (52%) of undecided voters in September had committed to a candidate by late October, while nearly half (48%) remained uncertain. Kerry gained significantly over Bush among swing voters during this period.

Kerry received more support from newly committed voters (38% favored Bush compared to 40% for Kerry), but his campaign benefited from factors like strong debate performance and Iraq policy discussions. Critics viewed Kerry negatively more often than initially (21% vs. 19% favorable rating change), but his overall ratings improved among undecided voters.

A plurality (46%) of remaining swing voters believed the U.S. made the right decision regarding Iraq, which influenced 21% of swing voters moving toward Kerry. Debates proved a significant factor, with Kerry seen outperforming Bush (44%-13%) by a nearly 3:1 margin.

Most undecided voters (83%) reported difficulty deciding due to cross-pressures from holding favorable views of both candidates and disagreeing with either or both on multiple issues.

The survey reveals that distinguishing characteristics of undecided voters include being less certain, less engaged in campaign activities, and having limited knowledge of both candidates. Partisanship did not heavily influence undecided voters, as they are evenly split between Democrats and Republicans in terms of leanings.

Four days before the election, nearly half of the initial swing voter group still considered themselves uncommitted or undecided, with the potential for significant fluctuations if undecided voters leaned more toward one candidate.

Key Points:

1. Improved Voter Commitment: 52% of swing voters decided on a candidate, increasing Kerry's share from 28% to 40% among undecideds.
2. Debate Influence: Kerry performed better than Bush overall in debates (44% better vs. 13%) especially among newly committed voters (74% rated Kerry's debate performance higher).
3. Iraq's Pivotal Role: Iraq was the most important issue motivating movement toward Kerry (21% of mover-group cited it) and formed the largest barrier for undecided voters (46% viewed decision to go to war as right).
4. Candidates' Image Changes: Kerry made more substantial gains in opinion ratings among undecided voters (-21% negative to +38% favorable), while Bush saw a net change of negligible improvement compared to September.
5. Remaining Uncertainty: 48% of swing voters remained uncertain, with less knowledge about candidates (53%) and less belief about election outcomes (53%) than fully committed voters (71%).
6. Partisanship in Uncertainty: The undecided group was roughly balanced between Democrats and Republicans, suggesting ideological and partisan leanings were key differentiators for firm voters rather than undecideds at this stage.

Methodology

This report is based on telephone interviews with a 519-sample subset of undecided voters from September surveys, conducted between October 21-25, 2004. The findings are subject to a margin of error due to sampling.