2004年-世界发展银行全球_On_the_Geography_of_Trade_____________Distance_is_Alive_and_Well_63页_709kb

Summary of "ON THE GEOGRAPHY OF TRADE: DISTANCE IS ALIVE AND WELL"

Core Content

This paper investigates the evolution of the Distance of Trade (DOT) for countries from 1962 to 2000, challenging the conventional belief that globalization has reduced the importance of distance in trade. The study argues that while overall trade costs may have declined, the DOT—a measure of the average distance of a country's trade—has actually increased for many countries, especially in certain regions.

Main Findings

• DOT Trends: The average DOT for the world fell over time, but the number of countries with declining DOT is nearly double those with increasing DOT.
• Regional Variations:
  • OECD countries: The average DOT for OECD countries decreased significantly, especially for imports.
  • Non-OECD countries: Their DOT decreased more than OECD countries, with notable exceptions like MENA and SSA, where it increased.
  • Major exceptions: The United States and Canada showed strongly increasing DOT for imports and exports, respectively.
• Product-Level Differences: The DOT varies by product category, with certain goods (e.g., tobacco, wearing apparel) being traded more at a distance than others.
• Sub-Period Analysis:
  • The overall trend for the world was relatively flat, but sub-periods showed significant variation.
  • 1962–1979: A general decline in DOT.
  • 1980–1989: A smaller but still significant decline.
  • 1990s: A sharp increase in DOT, especially for the OECD and the US.
• Trade Blocs: While regional integration generally reduces the DOT, countries in trade blocs tend to experience more pronounced changes in their DOT compared to non-member countries.

Key Hypotheses

1. Cost-Related Factors

• Transport costs are divided into dwell costs (independent of distance) and distance costs (dependent on distance).
• Changes in relative costs across different modes of transport (air vs. land vs. ocean) significantly affect the DOT.
• Production and domestic transport costs also play a role in the relative attractiveness of distant trade.
• Customs and trade-related costs influence the DOT, though their impact is less clear due to data limitations.

2. Benefit-Related Factors

• Relative benefits of trading at different distances (e.g., access to technology, market size) affect the DOT.
• Competition and exchange rate policy can alter the cost-benefit balance of distant trade.
• Just-in-time inventory management and counter-season trade also influence the DOT, as they may reduce the need for long-distance trade.

Implications

• The DOT is not solely determined by overall trade costs but by the relative evolution of its components.
• Home bias in consumption and the border effect in trade are influenced by the same factors that affect the DOT.
• Geographic proximity to economic centers still plays a crucial role in trade patterns, suggesting that distance remains a significant factor in international trade, contrary to some popular assumptions.

Methodology and Data

• The study uses COMTRADE bilateral trade data and spherical distances between major economic cities.
• The DOT is calculated using a weighted average of trade distances based on trade flows.
• The change in DOT is estimated using regression models, with the trend coefficient (β) indicating the direction and magnitude of change.
• The change is considered significant if it exceeds 5.5% in absolute value.

Conclusion

Despite the decline in transport and communication costs, the importance of distance in trade has increased over time, especially for the average country. The paper highlights that the evolution of the DOT is influenced by a combination of cost and benefit factors, and that regional integration does not necessarily lead to a reduction in the DOT. The findings suggest that distance remains a vital factor in shaping trade patterns, and that the geography of trade is still alive and well.