2018年-查塔姆研究所_The_039Transformation039_of_US-Russia_Relations_9页_120kb

REP Roundtable Summary: The 'Transformation' of US-Russian Relations

Core Content

The document summarizes the evolving nature of US-Russian relations following the 2008 Russia-Georgia war and the subsequent Obama administration's "reset" policy. It highlights that while there have been notable improvements in bilateral ties, the relationship has not undergone a fundamental transformation and remains characterized by a mix of cooperation and competition.

Main Views

• Post-2008 Shift: The war in August 2008 significantly altered the political landscape of US-Russian relations. It led to a sharp decline in diplomatic and military engagement, with the US initially cutting off all contacts with Russia.
• Reset Policy: The Obama administration sought to rebuild the relationship by focusing on areas of mutual interest, such as nuclear non-proliferation and counterterrorism, while also addressing differences through a dual-track approach.
• Strategic Rationale: The reset was not solely a tactical move but also aimed to foster a more substantive and enduring relationship. It was driven by the need to stabilize Afghanistan and address shared security concerns.
• Economic and Civil Society Engagement: Efforts to improve economic ties and engage with Russian civil society have been made, including Russia's accession to the WTO and increased cooperation in energy and innovation.
• Politicization of Russia Policy: The war led to the politicization of Russia policy in the US, with the issue becoming a central part of the presidential campaign and increasingly partisan.
• Regional Impacts: The conflict affected the perception of US policy in Central and Eastern Europe, with some fearing a loss of US influence in the region. The US has attempted to reassure these countries through NATO and other mechanisms.
• Russia's Regional Behavior: Russia has continued to exert pressure on neighboring states, including Belarus and Georgia, and has been reluctant to fully comply with post-war agreements.

Key Information

Security Cooperation

• New START Treaty: A major achievement in nuclear arms control, critical for global stability.
• Afghanistan: Russia has supported the US through the Northern Distribution Network and fuel supply.
• Iran: Russia has cooperated with the US on sanctions and non-proliferation.
• Military Engagement: Resumption of military-to-military contacts and joint counterterrorism efforts in August 2010.

Economic and Innovation Ties

• WTO Accession: Progress has been made in resolving Russia's accession to the WTO.
• Energy Efficiency and IT: Collaboration in energy and technology sectors has been encouraged.
• Bilateral Trade: Despite efforts, no major breakthroughs have been achieved.

Civil Society and Human Rights

• Assistance Programs: Increased funding for civil society initiatives.
• Peer-to-Peer Engagement: Emphasis on direct links between US and Russian civil society groups.
• Human Rights Advocacy: The US continues to speak out on human rights issues, but the policy is also seen as a way to create a more permissive political environment in Russia.

Political and Regional Dynamics

• Partisan Divide: The war led to a polarized and increasingly partisan debate over Russia policy in the US.
• Republican Shift: The Republican Party's view of Russia has become more hawkish, with figures like John McCain adopting a more confrontational stance.
• Central Asian Cooperation: A notable example of US-Russia collaboration in the post-Soviet space following the Kyrgyzstan riots in 2010.

Future Outlook

• Mid-Term Elections: A change in Congress may not significantly impact the reset, but could affect the New START treaty and civil-nuclear agreements.
• China's Role: While not a primary factor in the reset, China's influence may have indirectly contributed to Russia's openness to engagement.
• Long-Term Challenges: The unresolved issues from the Georgia war, such as military presence in South Ossetia and pressure on Georgia and Ukraine, will likely persist as obstacles to improved relations.

Conclusion

The reset policy has had a mixed impact, with significant progress in security and economic areas, but ongoing tensions and politicization continue to hinder deeper and more lasting cooperation. The document suggests that while the US has made efforts to engage Russia on a more substantive level, the legacy of the 2008 war and the resulting political climate in the US remain substantial challenges to the relationship's future.