尼尔森-新兴市场的下一个发展空间（英文）-2018-35页-2mb

WHAT'S NEXT IN EMERGING MARKETS

Core Content Overview

Emerging markets are experiencing rapid growth, driven by increasing consumer spending, urbanization, and digital adoption. The report highlights the potential of five key markets — Vietnam, Argentina, Brazil, Ghana, and Côte d'Ivoire — as well as the trends in the FMCG sectors of beer and snacks. These categories are seen as indicators of consumer readiness to spend on non-essentials, reflecting a shift in purchasing behavior and lifestyle preferences.

Main Trends and Insights

1. FMCG Growth in Emerging Markets

• FMCG sales growth in emerging markets is currently 2–4 times higher than in developed markets.
• Snacks and beer are among the fastest-growing categories, with healthy and portable options gaining traction.
• The rise of connected spenders (digital-savvy consumers) is a key driver of growth, especially in Vietnam and Argentina, where they are expected to significantly increase in number and spending power by 2025.

2. Vietnam: A Rising Star in Southeast Asia

• Vietnam is experiencing rapid economic expansion, with a high GDP growth rate and fast-growing FMCG industry.
• Snacks are leading the growth in FMCG, followed by beer and healthy food drinks.
• Rural areas are growing faster than urban regions, with rural FMCG sales growth outpacing urban by 7.6% to 4.9% in MAT Q3 2017.
• Local manufacturers are outperforming global players, with double the growth in snack sales compared to top global brands.
• Mini marts are playing a crucial role in the expansion of the modern trade channel, which is growing at 9.9% YTD Q3 2017, compared to 5.2% for traditional trade.

3. Argentina: A Market in Recovery

• Argentina's economy is recovering after a tough 2016, with GDP growth expected to stabilize and reach 2.5% in 2018.
• Local brands are driving snack growth, with a 47% increase in sales since 2016, compared to only 2% for global players.
• Connected spenders are expected to grow to 11 million by 2025, contributing $218 billion in digital spend.
• The low and premium price tiers are showing the most growth in FMCG, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards value and quality.

4. Brazil: A Market in Transition

• Brazil's FMCG market is recovering, with beer consumption growing faster than other categories.
• Private label and low-priced items are boosting the modern trade channel, with 28% growth in product variety.
• Millennials are the main force behind FMCG volume declines, but they are also key to premium product adoption as the economy improves.
• Connected consumers are increasing, with 55.9 million expected to be digital-savvy by 2025, spending $500 million or a third of all consumer spend.

5. Ghana: A Fast-Growing African Market

• Ghana is projected to be the fastest-growing African country in 2018, with a 7.8% GDP growth.
• The beverage category is showing strong growth, with beer, spirits, coffee, and soda leading the way.
• Rural areas are the biggest growth opportunity in non-essential categories, with sales growing 2–3 times faster than in the total category.
• Small manufacturers are outperforming top players, showing higher growth in both volume and value.

Key Markets to Watch

Summary of Growth Drivers

• Population Growth: Emerging markets have a growing population, especially in mid- to high-density cities.
• Rising Incomes: Consumers are becoming more affluent, allowing them to spend on non-essentials.
• Urbanization: More consumers are moving to urban and mixed-density areas, increasing demand for convenience and variety.
• Digital Adoption: Connected spenders are driving growth, with a preference for digital shopping and mobile engagement.
• Health and Wellness: Consumers are seeking healthier and more convenient options, especially in snacks and beverages.
• Local Innovation: Local manufacturers are outperforming global players in many categories due to better understanding of local tastes and needs.

Conclusion

Emerging markets are evolving rapidly, with snacks and beer serving as key indicators of consumer behavior. The connected and convenience-focused shopper is becoming more influential, pushing companies to innovate and adapt quickly. Local brands are leading the way in many markets, while premiumization and health trends are reshaping consumer preferences. Companies must act fast and strategically to capitalize on these opportunities and stay ahead of the curve.