深度-斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所-年鉴2021：全球军备、裁军和国际安全的现状（英文）-2021.6-112页_3mb

SIPRI Yearbook 2021 Summary

Core Content

The SIPRI Yearbook 2021 provides an in-depth analysis of global trends in armed conflict, military spending, international arms transfers, nuclear forces, and non-proliferation, arms control, and disarmament. It also highlights the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and other geopolitical developments on international security and peace processes in 2020.

Key Findings

Global Trends in Armed Conflict and Peace Processes

• 2020 saw active armed conflicts in at least 39 states, an increase of 5 from 2019.

  • Major armed conflicts: Afghanistan and Yemen.
  • High-intensity conflicts: Mexico, Syria, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Somalia, Mali, Iraq, South Sudan, Burkina Faso, Mozambique, Cameroon, Libya, the Philippines, India, and Niger.
  • Interstate conflicts: India-Pakistan border clashes, Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh.
  • Conflict-related fatalities: Total fatalities in 2020 were approximately 120,000, a 30% reduction since 2018.
    • Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest number of conflict-related fatalities, with an estimated 41% increase compared to 2019.
    • Asia and Oceania saw a 50% reduction in total conflict-related fatalities.
    • Europe had fewer fatalities than 2019, but the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict was the most intense since 1988–94.
    • Middle East and North Africa (MENA) experienced a 70% reduction in total conflict-related fatalities since 2017.

• Peace processes:

  • Afghanistan: Peace talks stalled, and violence continued.
  • Libya and Syria: Ceasefires suggested potential resolution, but progress was limited.
  • Nagorno-Karabakh: A Russian-brokered ceasefire ended the conflict, but unresolved issues remain.
  • Sudan: The only substantive progress in peace processes in sub-Saharan Africa.

• Impact of the pandemic:

  • Mixed effects on armed conflict, with some temporary declines in violence.
  • Increased psychological stress, domestic violence, and economic/political consequences.
  • A significant rise in deaths due to illness, including Covid-19.

Military Spending and Arms Transfers

• Global military expenditure continued to rise.
• International arms transfers remained roughly stable.
• Nuclear forces: The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons entered into force in January 2021, while the US withdrew from the Open Skies Treaty.

Multilateral Peace Operations

• 62 active multilateral peace operations in 2020, one more than the previous year.
  • UN remains the leading organization, responsible for about one-third of all multilateral peace operations and two-thirds of the personnel.
  • AMISOM in Somalia was the largest peace operation.
  • Troop contributors: Ethiopia, Uganda, and Bangladesh.
  • Non-multilateral operations increased, including Russian and EU deployments.

Non-Proliferation and Arms Control

• Nuclear disarmament: Stagnation in arms control, with the US withdrawing from the Open Skies Treaty.
• Chemical and biological security: Threats increased, especially in regions affected by identity politics and ethnic/religious polarization.
• Conventional arms control: Concerns over new weapon technologies and their regulation.
• Dual-use and arms trade controls: Continued to be a focus for preventing proliferation.

Main Points and Key Information

Summary of the Year

• Global stability and security remained largely unchanged in 2020 despite the Covid-19 pandemic.
• Military spending increased, but arms transfers stayed stable.
• Nuclear disarmament efforts faced setbacks, but the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons was a notable achievement.
• Conflict-related fatalities decreased globally, but sub-Saharan Africa saw a significant rise.

Regional Highlights

• Americas:

  • Colombia: The peace process continued, but challenges with FARC-EP dissidents and paramilitary groups remained.
  • Mexico: Continued violence with drug cartels, and a new National Guard was created.
  • Criminal violence and political unrest varied across the region, with some countries seeing reductions in homicide rates.

• Asia and Oceania:

  • Afghanistan: The deadliest conflict, with nearly 21,000 fatalities.
  • Myanmar: A de facto ceasefire brokered by Japan in November 2020.
  • Emerging trends: Chinese-United States rivalry, identity-based violence, and transnational jihadist groups.

• Europe:

  • Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict: Intense fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh, with 6700 estimated fatalities.
  • Ukraine: The main territorial conflict, with 109 conflict-related deaths in 2020.
  • Russia and Turkey emerged as key power brokers in Syria.

• Middle East and North Africa (MENA):

  • Syria and Libya saw ceasefires, but Yemen remained in a major conflict.
  • Israeli-Palestinian conflict: Lowest casualties in a decade, but no resolution in sight.
  • Iraq and Syria: Ongoing conflicts with Iranian influence and Turkish military involvement.

• Sub-Saharan Africa:

  • 20 states experienced active armed conflicts.
  • Sudan was the only region with substantive peace progress.
  • Security challenges: Increased transnational violence, ethnic tensions, and climate change impacts.

Conclusion

The SIPRI Yearbook 2021 underscores a mixed picture of global security, with declines in fatalities but persistent conflicts and increased militarization. The Covid-19 pandemic had a complex impact, affecting both violence levels and international cooperation. While some peace processes showed progress, others stagnated or regressed, highlighting the challenges of achieving lasting peace in a volatile geopolitical landscape.