20260818-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_6页_439kb

CMBI Credit Commentary Summary

📈 Core Market Updates

• ICICI 31s: Tightened 5bps from RO at T+105.
• Asia IG Spreads: Widened 1-3bps, with stronger selling observed in 2-3yr China and Korea issues.
• Long-end AT1s: Experienced selling pressure amid the macroeconomic environment.
• CNH LGFVs: Maintained strong support due to improved buying flows.
• GLPSP 4.6 Perp: Increased by 0.4pt.
• WESCHI 28: Declined by 0.6pt.

📊 Top Movers

📋 Desk Analyst Comments

Sands China (SANLTD)

• GGR Market Share: Increased to ~24.8% in 1H26 from ~23.4% in FY25.
• Casino Revenue: Rose 11.1% YoY to USD3.9bn, driven by higher table games and slot volumes.
• Adj. Property EBITDA: Declined 3.5% YoY to USD1.1bn, due to higher marketing and payroll expenses.
• Finance Cost: Dropped 12.8% YoY to USD170mn, reflecting reduced borrowing costs.
• Cash on Hand: Decreased to USD851mn from USD1.5bn, due to repayment of USD637mn credit facility and USD517mn dividends.
• Credit Profile: Viewed as stable, with limited refinancing risk.
• Valuation: SANLTDs appear less attractive than peers.
• Recommendation: Neutral on MGMCHIs and SJMHOL 28; prefer MPELs, STCITYs, and SJMHOL 31.

Macau Gaming USD Bonds

📈 China Economy Outlook

• GDP Forecast: Maintained at 4.6% for 2026, with a moderation from 4.7% in 1H26 to ~4.6% in 2H26.
• Economic Indicators:
  • Retail Sales: Grew 0.6% YoY in July, below expectations.
  • Fixed Investment: Continued to underperform, with urban fixed-asset investment down 6.7% YTD.
  • Property Market: Further contraction, with GFA sold down 11.8% YTD in July.
  • New Housing Sales: Dropped 13.3% YoY in first half of August.
• Consumption Weakness: Driven by both subsidy payback and precautionary savings, with a savings rate rising to 40.6% in 1H26.
• Industrial Output: Slowed to 4.5% YoY in July, but retained a strong export and technology tilt.
• Policy Support: Targeted stabilization rather than broad easing, with limited support for consumption and property.
• Fiscal Policy: Emphasized faster deployment, support for "six major networks," and emerging industries.

📦 Offshore Asia New Issues

Priced:

Pipeline:

📰 News and Market Color

• Onshore Primary Issuances: 86 credit bonds issued for RMB56bn yesterday, with a 10.8% YoY decline in month-to-date issuance.
• China Average New Home Prices: Dropped 3.2% YoY in July.
• Alibaba (BABA): Announced sale of Lingxi Games to Trustar for at least USD1.5bn.
• Lenovo (LENOVO): Redeemed early USD675mn LENOVO 2 1/2 08/26/29.

📌 Important Disclosures

• No Individual Advice: CMBIGM does not provide tailored investment advice.
• No Liability: CMBIGM is not liable for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on this report.
• Conflicts of Interest: CMBIGM may have market-making or investment positions in referenced securities.
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📌 Author Certification

• The author certifies that all views reflect personal opinions and are not influenced by compensation.
• Confirms no trading activity within 30 days prior to the report and no plans to trade within 3 business days after.
• No financial interest in covered companies and no conflicts of interest affecting the report's objectivity.