2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Somalia_2017_Article_IV_Consultation_and_First_Review_Under_the_Staff_92页_1mb

Somalia: 2017 Article IV Consultation and First Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP)

Core Content Overview

The 2017 Article IV Consultation and First Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) for Somalia, conducted by the IMF, highlights the country's economic developments and policy implementation amidst significant challenges. The consultation was completed on February 21, 2018, following discussions in December 2017. The report includes a Staff Report, an Informational Annex, and a Statement by the Executive Director.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Challenges

• Severe Drought and Security Issues: Somalia faced a severe drought starting in late 2016 and sporadic terrorist attacks in 2017, which negatively impacted economic activity, especially in northern and rural areas.
• Impact on Tax Collection: The drought and security situation temporarily affected the Federal Government of Somalia’s (FGS) tax collection efforts.
• Economic Slowdown: Despite challenges, the country avoided a significant economic slowdown with support from both national and international actors. GDP growth in 2017 was 1.8% (down from 2.4% in 2016), and inflation rose to 5.2% by year-end due to higher food prices.

Fiscal Performance

• Budget Surplus: A small budget surplus of $3.8 million was achieved by end-September 2017, primarily due to slower-than-expected budget execution.
• Domestic Revenue: Domestic revenue fell short of program targets in September 2017, but later reached the target by end-December 2017, thanks to critical tax measures and higher-than-programmed bilateral grants.
• Fiscal Framework Improvements: The authorities made progress in improving the fiscal framework, including public financial management (PFM) reforms, tax administration, and cash management.

Monetary and Financial Sector Developments

• New Currency: The launch of the new national currency is a key reform, with the Central Bank of Somalia (CBS) completing the anti-counterfeiting strategy and preparing for the design and printing of the new notes.
• Financial Sector Growth: The financial sector, though underdeveloped, showed growth. Commercial banks' total assets and credit to the private sector reached 4% and 1.3% of GDP, respectively, by end-September 2017.
• Mobile Money and MTBs: Money transfer businesses (MTBs) played a crucial role in financial intermediation, providing trade finance of about $2.1 billion in 2017.

Debt Relief and External Support

• HIPC Initiative: The IMF is supporting Somalia’s debt relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative, which aims to reduce poverty and ensure sustainable debt levels.
• Arrears Clearance: Somalia’s overdue obligation to the IMF reached $340.5 million in 2017, and the country is working to clear arrears and reduce external public debt.
• Donor Support: Donors have provided substantial grants, and Somalia is expected to continue receiving such support to achieve debt relief and arrears clearance.

Governance and Institutional Reforms

• PFM Reforms: The authorities have implemented several PFM reforms, including improving cash management and strengthening the Treasury Single Account (TSA).
• Anti-Corruption and Governance: Efforts to tackle governance and corruption issues are ongoing, with a focus on public financial management, revenue collection, and institutional capacity.
• Legal and Regulatory Frameworks: The authorities have adopted a new statistical law and established the Somali National Bureau of Statistics. They also initiated a financial sector development roadmap and prepared a draft law for targeted financial sanctions.

Program Implementation

• SMP Commitment: The Somali authorities have demonstrated strong commitment to the SMP, successfully completing the first 12-month program and entering the second one (May 2017–April 2018).
• Reforms Completed: Several structural reforms were completed, including the implementation of tax measures, the conclusion of agreements with private entities, and the development of a unified customs strategy.
• Staff Support: The IMF staff supports the completion of the first review under the SMP and encourages continued reform efforts to strengthen institutions and governance.

Policy Discussions and Recommendations

Fiscal Policy

• Revenue Mobilization: Continued efforts are needed to improve domestic revenue mobilization and meet program targets.
• Cash Management: The authorities have established a Cash Management Unit (CMU) and a Domestic Arrears Management Committee.
• Fiscal Federalism: Harmonization of some selected taxes between the FGS and federal member states is ongoing.

Monetary Policy

• Currency Reform: The CBS is finalizing the design and security features of the new currency, as well as the cost and volume of printing.
• Anti-Counterfeiting: Anti-counterfeiting measures have been implemented, and the CBS has developed a management function for currency reform.

Financial Sector Development

• AML/CFT Framework: The authorities have improved the legal and operational framework for anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT).
• Supervision and Licensing: The CBS has strengthened oversight of licensed institutions, initiated re-licensing processes, and begun on-site examinations of banks and MTBs.

Social and Economic Inclusion

• Social Spending: Increased attention is needed to address social spending requirements and improve the business environment.
• Data Gaps: Efforts to strengthen statistical institutions and improve data quality are ongoing.

Key Indicators

Conclusion

The Somali authorities have shown strong commitment to the SMP, despite facing significant economic and security challenges. The IMF has supported the country's efforts to improve fiscal and monetary frameworks, strengthen the financial sector, and address governance and corruption issues. Continued donor support and the implementation of reforms are essential for achieving sustainable economic recovery, debt relief, and long-term growth. The successful launch of the new currency and progress in data collection and statistical institutions are positive developments that will contribute to the country’s economic stability.