20260819-招银国际-科伦博泰生物-06990.HK-Sac-TMT_global_catalysts_building_5页_1mb
报告摘要
Kelun-Biotech (6990 HK) Summary
Core Content
Kelun-Biotech (6990 HK) has reported strong financial performance and progress in its drug development and commercialization efforts, particularly with the sac-TMT asset. The company achieved a total revenue of RMB978 million in the first half of 2026, representing a 2.9% year-over-year increase. Pharmaceutical product sales rose significantly to RMB657 million, a 112% YoY growth, contributing to the company's net profit of RMB388 million in 1H26, compared to a net loss of RMB145 million in 1H25. This improvement was partly due to a lawsuit settlement income of RMB702 million.
Main Points
-
Sac-TMT Commercialization Success:
Sac-TMT is the main driver of product sales, contributing around 80%. The first half of 2026 saw the inclusion of 2L+ TNBC and 3L EGFRm NSCLC in the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL), with further indications like 2L EGFRm NSCLC and 2L+ HR+/HER2- BC expected to be added by the end of 2026. -
Positive Clinical Trial Results:
The Phase 3 trial OptiTROP-Lung05 in 1L PD-L1-positive NSCLC showed promising results, with PFS HR 0.35 and OS HR 0.55 versus pembrolizumab. The Phase 3 Lung06 trial of sac-TMT plus pembrolizumab in 1L PD-L1-negative nsq-NSCLC also met its primary endpoint, supporting a China NDA and validating the ADC + IO combination therapy across the PD-L1 spectrum. -
Future Data Readouts:
MSD plans to release further global Phase 3 data in 2027, including 3L+ GC, 3L EGFRm NSCLC, and HR+/HER2- LA/mBC, with additional trials in 2028. These readouts are expected to provide strong support for the valuation of the company. -
Combination Therapies:
MSD is exploring sac-TMT in combination with its PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody MK-2010, which could serve as an incremental catalyst. Kelun-Biotech is also advancing SKB118 (PD-1/VEGF) plus sac-TMT in NSCLC and expanding this approach across its ADC portfolio. -
Next-Generation ADC Engine:
The company is developing next-generation ADCs, including dual-payload SKB565 (immuno-agonist + cytotoxin) and bispecific SKB103 (TAA/PD-L1), which are entering clinical development. -
Valuation and Target Price:
CMBIGM maintains a BUY rating with a revised target price of HK$642.29, up from the previous HK$507.11. The target price implies an upside of 18.4% from the current price of HK$542.50. The DCF-based valuation considers a WACC of 8.69%, a terminal growth rate of 3.5%, and a risk-adjusted model.
Key Financials
| Metric | FY24A | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (RMB mn) | 1,933 | 2,058 | 2,320 | 2,972 | 6,362 |
| YoY growth (%) | 25.5 | 6.5 | 12.8 | 28.1 | 114.0 |
| Net Profit (RMB mn) | (266.8) | (382.0) | (97.5) | (409.6) | 1,003.8 |
| EPS (Reported) (RMB) | (1.20) | (1.66) | (0.41) | (1.71) | 4.20 |
| R&D Expenses (RMB) | 1,206 | 1,320 | 1,584 | 1,522 | 2,042 |
Shareholding and Market Data
-
Shareholding Structure:
- Kelun Pharma: 68.5%
- MSD: 7.6%
-
Stock Performance:
- 1-month return: 11.5% (Absolute), 7.6% (Relative)
- 3-month return: 27.9% (Absolute), 28.9% (Relative)
- 6-month return: 31.5% (Absolute), 37.9% (Relative)
-
Market Cap: HK$129,670.5 million
-
Average 3-month turnover: HK$510.5 million
-
52-week High/Low: HK$577.50 / HK$348.00
Valuation Metrics
| Metric | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF per share (HK$) | 642.29 | - | - |
| Equity Value (RMB mn) | 132,030 | - | - |
| Net Debt (RMB mn) | -6,078 | - | - |
DCF Valuation Breakdown
| Year | EBIT (RMB mn) | EBIT*(1-tax rate) (RMB mn) | + D&A (RMB mn) | - Change in working capital (RMB mn) | - Capex (RMB mn) | FCFF (RMB mn) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026E | -136 | -136 | 106 | 253 | -150 | 73 |
| 2027E | -439 | -439 | 117 | 43 | -200 | -479 |
| 2028E | 1,145 | 974 | 126 | 379 | -200 | 1,279 |
| 2029E | 3,343 | 2,842 | 128 | 304 | -100 | 3,174 |
| 2030E | 5,716 | 4,859 | 129 | 199 | -100 | 5,087 |
| 2031E | 8,352 | 7,099 | 130 | 48 | -100 | 7,178 |
| 2032E | 10,208 | 8,677 | 132 | 153 | -100 | 8,862 |
| 2033E | 11,845 | 10,068 | 133 | 64 | -100 | 10,165 |
| 2034E | 13,066 | 11,106 | 134 | 30 | -100 | 11,170 |
| 2035E | 12,895 | 10,960 | 135 | -14 | -100 | 229,856 |
Sensitivity Analysis
| Terminal Growth Rate | WACC 7.69% | WACC 8.19% | WACC 8.69% | WACC 9.19% | WACC 9.69% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5% | 1,023.50 | 872.68 | 758.18 | 668.40 | 596.17 |
| 4.0% | 907.21 | 787.74 | 694.06 | 618.72 | 556.87 |
| 3.5% | 818.66 | 720.90 | 642.29 | 577.77 | 523.92 |
| 3.0% | 748.98 | 666.94 | 599.62 | 543.43 | 495.89 |
| 2.5% | 692.72 | 622.45 | 563.83 | 514.23 | 471.76 |
CMBIGM Estimates vs Consensus
| Metric | CMBIGM | Consensus | Diff (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (RMB mn) | 2,320 | 2,630 | -12% |
| Gross profit (RMB mn) | 1,740 | 2,020 | -14% |
| Operating profit (RMB mn) | -55 | -164 | NA |
| Net profit (RMB mn) | -97 | -32 | NA |
| EPS (RMB) | (0.41) | (0.13) | NA |
| Gross margin (%) | 74.98% | 76.82% | -1.84 ppt |
Analyst Certification
- The research analyst certifies that the views expressed in the report reflect their personal views and that their compensation is not related to the specific views.
- The analyst confirms no trading in the stock within 30 days prior to the report and no trading for 3 business days after the report.
CMBIGM Ratings
- BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months.
- HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months.
- SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months.
- NOT RATED: Stock not rated by CMBIGM.
- OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark.
- MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark.
- UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark.
Disclaimer
- The report contains general information and is not tailored for individual investors.
- Past performance is not indicative of future results.
- The value of investments may fluctuate and is not guaranteed.
- CMBIGM is not liable for any loss, damage, or expense resulting from reliance on the report.
- The report is for the use of intended recipients only and may not be reproduced or distributed without consent.
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载