20130902-富瑞金融香港公司-Today_At_A_Glance_12页_306kb

Asia Research Summary

Global Overview

• Market Sentiment: Over the past week (22 to 28 August), global markets were affected by tensions in the Middle East and concerns about QE3 tapering. Investors remained cautious, selling off bonds and equities and shifting funds into money markets.
• Fund Flows:
  • Global bond funds experienced a net withdrawal of US$7.2bn, continuing a five-week streak of selling.
  • Global equity funds recorded a net outflow of US$4.8bn, slightly improved from the previous week's US$12bn.
  • Global money markets saw a net inflow of US$1.7bn, down from US$22bn the previous week.
  • Commodity funds had a light but rising inflow of US$507mn, marking the end of a 27-week selling streak.

Key Companies Analysis

Beijing Enterprises (HKSE: 392 HK)

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: HK$64.50
• Current Quarter (e): HK$58.30 to HK$64.50
• Current Year (e): HK$3.38 to HK$3.18
• Next Year (e): HK$3.84 to HK$3.79
• Est. Type: EPS
• Key Points:
  • 1H13 core net profit missed expectations due to lower pipeline volume.
  • The company is expected to resume growth in 2H13-14 with reduced capex and termination of Leason's share subscription.
  • Analysts raise target price and upgrade to Buy, citing improved fundamentals.

Dongfang Electric Corp (HKSE: 1072 HK)

• Rating: Hold
• Price Target: HK$2.06 to HK$2.26
• Current Quarter (e): HK$17.90 to HK$12.10
• Current Year (e): RMB 1.41 to RMB 1.00; RMB 1.51 to RMB 1.02
• Est. Type: EPS
• Key Points:
  • The company is downgraded to Hold due to secular decline in new thermal orders and margin pressure.
  • Despite the company's position in the power sector, the analysts believe the sector's growth is not sustainable in the long term.

Harbin Electric Co. (HKSE: 1133 HK)

• Rating: Hold
• Price Target: HK$2.06 to HK$2.26
• Current Quarter (e): HK$7.00 to HK$5.30
• Current Year (e): RMB 0.76 to RMB 0.69
• Next Year (e): RMB 0.80 to RMB 0.59
• Est. Type: EPS
• Key Points:
  • Analysts downgraded the company to Hold due to the secular decline in new thermal orders.
  • The company is currently trading at 6x 2014 P/E, indicating potential margin pressure.

Shanghai Electric Group (HKSE: 2727 HK)

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: HK$3.60
• Current Quarter (e): -
• Current Year (e): -
• Next Year (e): -
• Est. Type: EPS
• Key Points:
  • 1H13 NPAT declined by 25% YoY to Rmb1.41bn, in-line with consensus.
  • The analysts maintain a Buy rating, anticipating long-term recovery in the power sector.

China Datang Corp Renewable Power (HKSE: 1798 HK)

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: HK$2.20
• Current Quarter (e): -
• Current Year (e): -
• **Next Year (e)****: -
• Est. Type: EPS
• Key Points:
  • 1H13 NPAT rebounded by 124% YoY to Rmb231m, driven by wind power generation.
  • Despite some losses, the company is expected to benefit from increased wind capacity and utilization.

Weichai Power - H (HKSE: 2338 HK)

• Rating: Underperform
• Price Target: HK$20.50
• Current Quarter (e): RMB 1.49 to RMB 1.61
• Current Year (e): -
• Next Year (e): -
• Est. Type: EPS
• Key Points:
  • The 1H13 beat was driven by engine restocking and front-loaded HDT sales.
  • Analysts warn of declining engine orders and expect growth to slow in the second half.

PetroChina (HKSE: 857 HK)

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: HK$15.75
• Current Quarter (e): -
• Current Year (e): -
• Next Year (e): -
• Est. Type: EPS
• Key Points:
  • The company's former chairman is under investigation, which may affect market sentiment.
  • Analysts maintain a Buy rating, highlighting the company's long-term potential.

Lonking Holdings (HKSE: 3339 HK)

• Rating: Underperform
• Price Target: HK$1.00 to HK$1.27
• Current Quarter (e): RMB 0.06 to RMB 0.13
• Current Year (e): RMB 0.08 to RMB 0.10
• Est. Type: EPS
• Key Points:
  • The company had a strong 1H13 with increased loader margins, but this is not expected to be sustainable.
  • Analysts maintain an Underperform rating, citing weak fundamentals and competitive pressure.

CITIC Securities (HKSE: 6030 HK)

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: HK$7.50
• Current Quarter (e): -
• Current Year (e): -
• Next Year (e): -
• Est. Type: EPS
• Key Points:
  • The company's earnings decline is attributed to restructuring efforts.
  • Analysts believe the decline is short-term and expect double-digit ROE in two years.

Tianjin Development Hldgs Ltd. (HKSE: 882 HK)

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: HK$7.50
• Current Quarter (e): -
• Current Year (e): -
• Next Year (e): -
• Est. Type: EPS
• Key Points:
  • The company reported flattish 1H results with no dividend declared.
  • Analysts maintain a Buy rating due to the company's cheap valuation and potential asset injection.

Olam International (SES: OLAM SP)

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: SGD2.25
• Current Quarter (e): -
• Current Year (e): -
• Next Year (e): -
• Est. Type: EPS
• Key Points:
  • 4Q13 net profit was distorted by higher tax provisions, but operational metrics showed growth.
  • Analysts highlight improved cash flow and capital discipline, supporting a Buy rating.

Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (KUL: FGV MK)

• Rating: Sell
• Price Target: MYR4.00
• Current Quarter (e): -
• Current Year (e): -
• Next Year (e): -
• Est. Type: -
• Key Points:
  • The company's operational weakness is masked by accounting adjustments.
  • Analysts maintain a Sell rating due to unexciting FFB production prospects and high valuations.

Kulim (M) Berhad (KUL: KUL MK)

• Rating: Sell
• Price Target: MYR3.00
• Current Quarter (e): -
• Current Year (e): -
• Next Year (e): -
• Est. Type: -
• Key Points:
  • The company's results were weaker than expected, with normalized earnings trailing forecasts.
  • Analysts maintain a Sell rating, citing excessive expectations and weak fundamentals.

Lion Industries Corporation Bhd (KUL: LLB MK)

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: MYR1.50
• Current Quarter (e): -
• Current Year (e): -
• Next Year (e): -
• Est. Type: -
• Key Points:
  • FY13 normalized earnings fell by 31% due to sales volume and price slump.
  • Analysts maintain a Buy rating, citing undemanding valuation at 0.2x FY14F PB.

AEON Co (M) (KUL: AEON MK)

• Rating: Hold
• Price Target: MYR14.40
• Current Quarter (e): -
• Current Year (e): -
• Next Year (e): -
• Est. Type: -
• Key Points:
  • 2Q13 results were within expectations, with earnings declining qoq but rising yoy.
  • Analysts maintain a Hold rating, noting the company's stable performance and mixed earnings trends.

Tan Chong Motor Holdings (KUL: TCM MK)

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: MYR7.90
• Current Quarter (e): -
• Current Year (e): -
• Next Year (e): -
• Est. Type: -
• Key Points:
  • 2Q13 normalized earnings declined qoq but rose yoy due to strong passenger car sales.
  • Analysts maintain a Buy rating, citing strong growth potential and compelling valuations.

Sunway Bhd (KLSE: SWB MK)

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: MYR4.20
• Current Quarter (e): -
• Current Year (e): -
• Next Year (e): -
• Est. Type: -
• Key Points:
  • 2Q13 normalized earnings grew strongly by 43% yoy and 23% qoq.
  • The company's property development division was a key performer, with strong sales near transport networks.
  • Analysts view the recent share price weakness as a buying opportunity.

IGB Corp Berhad (KUL: IGB MK)

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: MYR3.80
• Current Quarter (e): -
• Current Year (e): -
• Next Year (e): -
• Est. Type: -
• Key Points:
  • 2Q13 normalized net profit rose by 27% qoq and 9% yoy.
  • The company is a laggard in the sector, but analysts believe its resilient earnings base supports a Buy rating.

KPJ Healthcare (KUL: KPJ MK)

• Rating: Hold
• Price Target: MYR6.75
• Current Quarter (e): -
• Current Year (e): -
• Next Year (e): -
• Est. Type: -
• Key Points:
  • 2Q13 earnings declined 27% yoy and were up 1% qoq, below expectations.
  • Analysts maintain a Hold rating, citing high earnings expectations and delayed hospital projects.

Events & Marketing

Jefferies Events

• Conferences:

  • Jefferies Fall 2013 Mid-Atlantic Corporate Access Day (9/4/2013, Baltimore)
  • Jefferies Advanced Analytics and Big Data Intelligence Summit (9/17/2013 - 9/18/2013, Boston)
  • Jefferies Tobacco Summit (9/26/2013, New York)
  • Jefferies 3rd Annual Asia Summit-Hong Kong (10/23/2013 - 10/24/2013, Hong Kong)
  • Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference in London (11/20/2013 - 11/21/2013, London)
  • Jefferies Financial Institutions Group Year End CEO Conference (12/2/2013, New York)

• Company Marketing:

  • MMG Ltd (1208 HK): 9/2/2013 - 9/6/2013 (Frankfurt, Geneva, London, Zurich)
  • Hays PLC (HAS LN): 9/2/2013 - 9/5/2013 (London)
  • BAE Systems PLC (BA/ LN): 9/3/2013 - 10/18/2013 (Edinburgh, London)
  • BBA Aviation PLC (BBA LN): 9/3/2013 - 9/23/2013 (London)
  • US Physical Therapy Inc (USPH): 9/3/2013 (Atlanta)
  • Integra LifeSciences Holdings Corp (IART): 9/3/2013 (New York)
  • The Chefs` Warehouse Inc. (CHEF): 9/4/2013 (San Francisco)
  • Ford Motor Co (F): 9/4/2013 (New York)
  • China Merchants Holdings International Co Ltd (144 HK): 9/4/2013 - 9/6/2013 (Singapore)
  • Avalanche Biotechnology: 9/5/2013 - 9/6/2013 (Baltimore, New York)
  • El Paso Electric Co (EE): 9/5/2013 - 9/6/2013 (Boston, Toronto)
  • Hanger Inc (HGR): 9/5/2013 - 9/6/2013 (Dallas, Houston, San Antonio)
  • BioMerieux (BIM FP): 9/6/2013 (London)
  • Socio International PLC (SIA LN): 9/6/2013 - 9/11/2013 (Edinburgh, London)
  • KeyCorp (KEY) Breakfast: 9/9/2013 (New York)
  • MMG Ltd (1208 HK): 9/9/2013 - 9/13/2013 (Baltimore, Boston, Denver, Los Angeles, New York, San Diego, San Francisco)
  • Fairpoint Communications Inc (FRP): 9/9/2013 - 9/10/2013 (New York)
  • Nuverra Environmental Solutions Inc (NES): 9/10/2013 - 9/11/2013 (Portland, OR, San Francisco, Seattle)
  • Cbeyond Inc (CBEY): 9/10/2013 (San Francisco)
  • ABM Industries Inc (ABM): 9/10/2013 - 9/12/2013 (Frankfurt, Geneva, London, Munich, Zurich)
  • Deutsche Telekom AG (DTE GR): 9/10/2013 - 9/12/2013 (Dublin, Edinburgh, London)
  • Cairn Energy PLC (CNE LN): 9/10/2013 - 9/12/2013 (London)
  • Prestige Estates Projects Ltd (PEPL IN): 9/10/2013 - 9/12/2013 (Hong Kong, Singapore)
  • National Oilwell Varco Inc (NOV): 9/10/2013 (Mid-Atlantic)
  • Private Dinner: Generic CEO Forum and Hikma Pharmaceuticals Group Dinner (9/10/2013, London)
  • Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB (SOBI SS): 9/11/2013 (New York)
  • Baltic Trading Ltd (BALT)/Genco Shipping (GNK): 9/11/2013 - 9/13/2013 (Los Angeles, Portland, OR, San Francisco)
  • HeidelbergCement AG (HEI GR): 9/11/2013 (Jersey City, Mid-Atlantic)
  • McGraw Hill Financial Inc (MHFI): 9/11/2013 (London)
  • Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA LN): 9/11/2013 (Singapore)
  • Go-Ahead Group PLC (GOG LN): 9/12/2013 (Edinburgh)

Analyst Marketing

• Events:
  • Govindarajan Chellappa: 9/2/2013 - 9/6/2013 (Copenhagen, Edinburgh, London, Stockholm)
  • Laban Yu, Joseph Fong: 9/2/2013 - 9/3/2013 (Singapore)
  • Yoshihiro Azuma: 9/2/2013 - 9/6/2013 (Geneva, London, Paris, Zurich)
  • Douglas Mavrinac: 9/3/2013 - 9/4/2013 (Austin, Dallas, Ft. Worth, San Antonio)
  • James Grzinic, Charlotte Edgar: 9/3/2013 - 9/5/2013 (New York, Philadelphia, Toronto)
  • Stephen "Steve" Volkmann: 9/4/2013 - 9/6/2013 (Atlanta, Nashville, Orlando, St. Petersburg, FL, Tampa)
  • Brian Tanquilut: 9/4/2013 - 9/5/2013 (New York)
  • Michael Ryan: 9/5/2013 - 9/6/2013 (Midwest)
  • Milan Radia: 9/6/2013 (New York)
  • Peter Misek: 9/9/2013 (Baltimore)
  • Laurence Alexander: 9/9/2013 - 9/10/2013 (Boston, Detroit, Pittsburgh)
  • Thomas Seitz: 9/9/2013 (Boston)
  • Jeffrey Holford: 9/9/2013 (Boston)
  • Dan Dolev: 9/9/2013 (London)
  • Aaron Schwartz: 9/9/2013 - 9/13/2013 (Edinburgh, Frankfurt, Geneva, Glasgow, London)
  • Stephen "Steve" Volkmann: 9/9/2013 - 9/10/2013 (Dallas, Ft. Worth)
  • Brandon Couillard: 9/10/2013 (Boston)
  • Stephan Hasjim - Indonesian Banks/ Indonesia Strategy: 9/10/2013 - 9/13/2013 (Hong Kong, Singapore)
  • Jason Streets Investor Education: 9/10/2013 - 9/23/2013 (Boston, Edinburgh, London, New York, Philadelphia, Switzerland, TBC, West Coast)
  • Daniel "Dan" Fannon: 9/10/2013 (Los Angeles)
  • Christopher "Chris" LaFemina, Seth Rosenfeld: 9/11/2013 - 9/13/2013 (London)
  • Group Dinner with Ken Usdin, Casey Haire, Emlen Harmon: 9/11/2013 (New York)
  • Bradley Han: -

Summary

The summary highlights the mixed performance of Asian equities and the impact of global macroeconomic factors such as Middle East tensions and QE3 tapering. Several companies experienced weak results, but some showed signs of recovery and potential for future growth. Analysts provided ratings and price targets based on financial performance, operational trends, and market sentiment. The report also includes details of upcoming events and marketing activities aimed at engaging investors and stakeholders.