深度报告-2025-11-17-Morgan_Stanley-中国汽车零部件拓展海外市场——零部件供应商走向全球化_74页_6mb

Morgan Stanley China Auto Parts Suppliers: Global Expansion Analysis Summary

Key Findings:

1. Motivation for Global Expansion

   • Domestic market pressures (price competition, margin deterioration) push suppliers to seek opportunities abroad.
   • Quality & tech upgrades enable access to global OEMs, particularly for electric vehicle (EV) components.

2. Overseas Strategy Comparison

   • Exports: Higher margins but limited long-term scalability.
   • Offshore Plants: Lower margins initially due to costs (labor, regulation), but better project stickiness and global presence.

3. Preferred Suppliers

   • Xingyu (601799.SS), Desay (002920.SZ): High growth potential with expanding overseas presence.
   • Minth (0425.HK), Keboda (603786.SS): Sizeable overseas exposure and improving efficiency.
   • Downgrades for Sanhua (002050.SZ), Tuopu (601689.SS): EV and AC growth slowing.

4. Opportunity Size

   • China suppliers to capture US$240bn in overseas market share by 2030 (10% of non-China market).

Valuations & Risks

• Valuation driven by global tech adoption (autonomous driving, AIDC) and manufacturing efficiency.
• Geopolitical tensions and production costs are risks, but diversified supply chains may mitigate impact.

Actionable Insights

• Focus on traditional suppliers (auto glass, lighting) for shorter-term gains.
• Monitor progress in autonomous domain controllers for long-term exposure.