2013年-世界发展银行全球_CPIA_Africa_June_2013___Assessing_Africas_Policies_and_Institutions_68页_5mb

2012 CPIA Results for Africa Summary

Core Content

The Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) report for 2012 provides an overview of the policy and institutional environments in Sub-Saharan African countries, highlighting the resilience of these systems amid global economic challenges. The report assesses 39 IDA-eligible countries across four clusters: economic management (Cluster A), structural policies (Cluster B), policies for social inclusion and equity (Cluster C), and public sector management and institutions (Cluster D). CPIA scores are on a scale of 1–6, with 6 being the highest, and are calculated based on quantitative and qualitative data, as well as staff judgments.

Main Points

• Overall CPIA Score: The average CPIA score for Sub-Saharan African countries was 3.2 in 2012, unchanged from 2011.
• Country Performance: More than half of the countries saw a change in their CPIA scores, with 11 countries improving and 12 countries declining.
• Fragile vs. Non-Fragile Countries: Fragile countries had a lower average CPIA score (2.7) compared to non-fragile countries (3.5), reflecting deeper governance challenges.
• Non-Resource Rich Countries: These countries had a slightly higher average CPIA score (3.2) than resource-rich countries (3.0), though the gap narrowed.
• CPIA and Human Development: The correlation between CPIA scores and the non-income Human Development Index (HDI) was 0.22, stronger for structural policies (0.29) and social inclusion policies (0.28) than for macroeconomic policies.

Key Clusters and Trends

Cluster A: Economic Management

• Performance: The regional average score remained 3.4, unchanged from 2011.
• Monetary Policy: Inflation declined in 2012 due to price moderation and prudent monetary policy. Countries like Kenya and Guinea improved their CPIA scores through effective inflation management.
• Fiscal Policy: The average score for fiscal policy was 3.3, down from 3.4 in 2011. Fiscal balances weakened in several countries, with notable declines in Ghana, Togo, and Guinea-Bissau.
• Debt Policy: The average score was 3.3, stable from 2011. Countries like Côte d'Ivoire, Comoros, and Guinea reached the completion point of the HIPC Initiative, benefiting from debt relief. The risk of debt distress was generally low or moderate.

Cluster B: Structural Policies

• Performance: The regional average score was 3.2, with little change in trade policy and trade facilitation.
• Trade: External tariffs in Sub-Saharan Africa remained higher than in other regions, and non-tariff barriers continued to be significant constraints. Efforts to improve trade facilitation were evident, but progress was limited.
• Financial Sector: The average score was 2.9, down from 3.0 in 2011. Financial systems remained stable, with a focus on improving access and efficiency. However, financial intermediation levels are low, particularly for private sector credit.

Cluster C: Policies for Social Inclusion and Equity

• Performance: The regional average score was 3.5, showing a slow upward trend.
• Social Reforms: Social inclusion policies have seen gradual improvement, with scores similar to those for structural policies. However, governance challenges continue to hinder progress.

Cluster D: Public Sector Management and Institutions

• Performance: The regional average score was 3.0, the lowest among all clusters, indicating deep governance issues.
• Fragile Countries: These countries lag significantly behind non-fragile ones in all CPIA categories, with poor governance and weak public sector capacity being major factors.

Conclusion

The 2012 CPIA results reveal considerable variation in policy and institutional quality across Sub-Saharan African countries. While some nations improved their scores, others faced declines, particularly those affected by conflict or political instability. The report underscores the importance of macroeconomic stability and effective governance in fostering sustainable development and reducing poverty. It also highlights the need for reforms in trade facilitation, financial sector deepening, and improved public sector management to enhance the overall policy environment in the region.