2024-01-17-莱坊-Future_Gazing_2024_20页_5mb

报告摘要

Future Gazing: Logistics for Modern Living

Core Content

This report from Knight Frank Research explores the evolving relationship between industrial and logistics property and modern lifestyles, demographics, and consumer trends. It highlights how the increasing urbanization, shift in shopping habits, and growth of the digital economy are reshaping the demand for logistics and industrial space across the UK.

Main Viewpoints

Industrial and logistics properties are integral to modern life, supporting both essential and discretionary goods and services. They are often overlooked in local development plans despite their critical role in supply chains.
Consumer demand is a major driver of logistics and industrial property needs, especially with the rise of e-commerce and changing retail behaviors.
Household trends such as shrinking sizes and urban migration are increasing the need for logistics space to support delivery and service requirements.
Urbanization is leading to higher demand for logistics in city centers and suburbs, with a growing emphasis on last-mile delivery and B2B services like food and beverage, leisure, and hospitality.
Technology and automation are transforming the logistics sector, increasing the need for skilled workers and more efficient use of space.
Regional disparities exist in the availability and cost of industrial and logistics space, with the Midlands Golden Triangle and Yorkshire & Humber being key hubs.

Key Information

Household and Logistics Needs

For each dwelling in the UK, there is 109 sq ft of occupied industrial and logistics space.
The Midlands (East and West) and Yorkshire & Humber together account for 38% of the UK’s industrial and logistics floorspace but only 24% of housing stock.
East Midlands has the highest per dwelling industrial and logistics space at 183 sq ft, followed by West Midlands at 182 sq ft.
London has the lowest per dwelling industrial and logistics space at 55 sq ft due to high housing density and land values.
Occupied floorspace per dwelling has increased by 7.5% over the past ten years, from 102 sq ft in 2013 to 109 sq ft in 2023.

Market Trends

Market rents have risen by 63% over the past decade, with prime rents (units over 50,000 sq ft) almost doubling.
London has seen the strongest rental growth at 96%, while occupied space growth has been the lowest.
Occupied industrial and logistics space has grown faster than total inventory, leading to lower vacancy rates (from 9.2% in 2013 to 5.2% in Q3 2023).

Consumer-Driven Demand

Online retail has grown significantly, increasing from 9.3% to 26.6% in the past ten years, and is expected to reach 29.1% by 2028.
E-commerce requires three times more distribution space than store-based retail.
Based on forecasts, 37 million sq ft of additional logistics space will be needed to support online retail growth over the next five years.
Store-based retail still accounts for a large portion of retail spending, with each £1 billion in store sales requiring 449,000 sq ft of industrial and logistics space.
4.7 million sq ft of warehouse space is required to support the growth in store-based retail sales over the next five years.

Regional Growth Projections

London is expected to see the strongest growth in dwellings (an additional 254,450 by 2028, or 6.7% growth).
The South East and East of England are also projected to see significant growth in dwellings and disposable incomes.
Urban populations are expected to rise to 85.6% by 2033, with 59.5 million people living in urban areas.

Challenges and Opportunities

Local planning often overlooks the importance of logistics and distribution infrastructure, leading to undersupply in some regions.
Land availability and planning flexibility are key barriers to meeting the growing demand for logistics space.
Rising rents and limited space are pushing some logistics operators to seek locations further north.
Last-mile logistics and B2B services are expected to see the most significant increase in demand due to urban growth and changing consumer behaviors.

Conclusion

The report outlines ten key points that summarize the current and future state of demand for industrial and logistics space:

The UK population is growing, with a shift toward urban living.
Household sizes are decreasing, increasing the number of delivery addresses.
The digital economy is driving demand for logistics and industrial space.
E-commerce is expanding rapidly, requiring more warehouse and distribution facilities.
Online retail penetration is expected to increase significantly by 2028.
Store-based retail still plays a major role in the economy and requires logistics space.
Regional differences in industrial and logistics stock are pronounced.
The Midlands Golden Triangle is a strategic logistics hub.
Planning systems need to be more responsive to the needs of the logistics sector.
The future demand for logistics space is expected to be driven by urbanization, e-commerce growth, and B2B needs.

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