2019-07-04_DTZ戴德梁行_Office_Q3_2018_Baltimore_4页_402kb
报告摘要
Baltimore Office Market Q3 2018 Summary
Core Content
This report provides an overview of the Baltimore office market for Q3 2018, highlighting key economic indicators, market trends, lease and sale transactions, and future outlook. It is published by Cushman & Wakefield, a leading global real estate services firm.
Economic Indicators
- Baltimore Employment: Increased slightly from 1.41M in Q3 2017 to 1.42M in Q3 2018.
- Baltimore Unemployment: Rose from 4.1% to 4.6% year-over-year (YOY).
- U.S. Unemployment: Declined from 4.4% to 3.9% YOY, indicating a broader national expansion.
- The U.S. is in its second-longest expansion cycle on record, with expectations of continued growth.
Market Overview
- Overall Vacancy: Increased by 90 basis points (bps) YOY to 13.6%.
- Net Absorption (YTD): The market absorbed 440,740 sf in 2018, with 187,220 sf absorbed in Q3 2018.
- Class A Absorption: Led the market with 313,260 sf absorbed in Q3 2018, contributing significantly to the YTD total.
- Class B Absorption: Experienced a slight decline of 126,040 sf in Q3 2018, but showed marginal upward pressure in rental rates.
- New Leases: Notable transactions included WeWork and Jellyfish Group leasing space at the under-construction Willis Wharf, and TBC Inc renewing a lease at 900 S Wolfe Street.
Market Trends
- New Supply: Six new Class A speculative buildings were delivered in Q3 2018, totaling 447,340 sf with 42.7% leased.
- Future Supply: A total of 1.4 msf of office space is expected to be delivered over the next 24 months.
- Rental Rates: Gross asking rents increased by 3.0% YOY to $23.59 psf.
- Class A Rents: Flattened at $26.32 psf.
- Class B Rents: Slightly increased to $20.49 psf, with the Town Center submarket leading the way.
Outlook
- Rental Growth: Expected to be slow but steady over the next six months.
- Vacancy Rates: Likely to increase as new construction delivers vacant space.
- Landlord Market: May experience softening in the second half of 2018.
- Capital Investment: Investors are becoming more strategic, with continued capital deployment expected.
Key Lease Transactions Q3 2018
| Property | SF | Tenant | Transaction Type | Submarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wills Street & Caroline Street | 69,306 | WeWork | New Lease | Baltimore City |
| Wills Street & Caroline Street | 34,654 | Jellyfish Group | New Lease | Baltimore City |
| 800 International Drive | 33,977 | Undisclosed | New Lease | BWI Airport |
| 900 S Wolfe Street | 28,000 | TBC Inc | Renewal | Baltimore City |
Key Sales Transactions Q3 2018
| Property | SF | Seller/Buyer | Price / $PSF | Submarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6100 Wabash Avenue | 538,000 | The JBG Companies / CoreCivic | $242,000,000 / $448 | Baltimore City |
| 170 Jennifer Road | 60,000 | The Beatson Companies / Abrams Development Group | $16,400,000 / $273 | Greater Annapolis |
Summary Table
| Metric | Q3 2017 | Q3 2018 | 12-Month Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vacancy | 12.5% | 13.6% | ▼ |
| YTD Net Absorption (sf) | 319k | 187K | ▲ |
| Under Construction (sf) | 1.4M | 1.4M | ■ |
| Average Asking Rent* | $23.07 | $23.52 | ▲ |
- Rental rates reflect gross asking $psf/year
Submarket Vacancy and Rent Analysis
| Submarket | Inventory (SF) | Sublet Vacant (SF) | Direct Vacant (SF) | Overall Vacancy Rate | Current Qtr Net Absorption (SF) | YTD Net Absorption (SF) | Under Construction (SF) | Direct Average Asking Rent | Overall Average Asking Rent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWI Airport | 11,310,322 | 64,621 | 1,551,601 | 14.3% | -3,249 | 141,212 | 118,614 | $26.77 | $30.51 |
| Baltimore City | 21,450,649 | 152,225 | 3,518,344 | 17.1% | 26,736 | -112,244 | 439,706 | $22.81 | $24.84 |
| Greater Annapolis | 3,747,152 | 14,379 | 318,251 | 8.9% | 21,548 | 43,586 | 229,800 | $26.53 | $30.66 |
| Harford County | 2,075,926 | 8,450 | 563,377 | 27.5% | 33,318 | 72,851 | 0 | $29.37 | $29.64 |
| Howard County | 16,756,131 | 98,420 | 1,634,911 | 10.3% | -44,350 | 97,175 | 320,964 | $24.04 | $29.21 |
| Suburban North | 12,826,698 | 75,517 | 1,167,064 | 9.7% | 129,156 | 124,530 | 320,000 | $20.39 | $20.74 |
Overall Market Summary
| Metric | Q3 2018 | YTD 2018 | Under Construction (SF) | Average Asking Rent (All Classes) | Average Asking Rent (Class A) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vacancy | 13.6% | 13.6% | 1,429,084 | $23.52 | $26.32 |
| Net Absorption | 187,220 | 440,740 | 1,429,084 | - | - |
Key Insights
- The Baltimore Metro office market showed strong absorption in Q3 2018, with a total of 187,220 sf absorbed.
- Class A properties led the absorption, while Class B experienced a slight decline.
- Vacancy rates increased slightly, indicating some challenges in the market.
- New construction is expected to continue driving supply and potentially increasing vacancy.
- Gross rental rates increased slightly, suggesting a modest upward trend in the market.
- Strategic investment and careful capital deployment are expected to continue in the second half of 2018.
Contact Information
For more information, contact:
- David Spragg
- Senior Research Analyst
- Tel: +1 410 347 7552
- Email: David.Spragg@cushwake.com
About Cushman & Wakefield
Cushman & Wakefield is a leading global real estate services firm with 48,000 employees across 400 offices in 70 countries. In 2017, the firm had revenue of $6.9 billion. For more details, visit www.cushmanwakefield.com or follow @CushWake on Twitter.
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