2025-06-04-Jefferies-CrowdStrike（CRWD）_这只猎鹰受到预期的束缚_但仍能飞得更高_13页_547kb

Summary of Equity Research Report on CrowdStrike (CRWD)

Overall Rating and Price Target

• Rating: BUY.
• Current Price: $488.76.
• Price Target: $520 (up 6.6%), based on a DCF model with 5% terminal growth, implying 22x EV/CY26 revenue.

Key Financial Highlights from F1Q/2Q

• ARR Growth: 21.6% YoY, below investor expectations of 22% (beat consensus by 0.4% YoY). New business growth declined due to macro headwinds, F1Q seasonality, and CCP program impacts.
• Revenue: F1Q subscription revenue missed cons by 6.5c (-$11M impact from CCP headwinds). F2Q revenue guide also missed cons by 1%.
• FCF and Non-GAAP OPI: F1Q FCF margin of 25% exceeded expectations; management attributed part of the miss to a $61M outage. FCF visibility is strong via large Flex deals, driving potential margin improvement.

Management Guidance and Future Outlook

• ARR Acceleration: F2H26 NNARR expected to grow, driven by CXO module sales and economic conditions. Modeled 22% YoY ARR growth for FY26.
• Margin Expansion: Non-GAAP Op margin guidance raised to 20.8% YoY for FY26, supported by strategic investments in AI and automation.
• Growth Drivers: Strong MSSP traction and partner ecosystem (e.g., Guidepoint, AWS). MSE updates showed optimized sales cycles.

Risks and Concerns

• Competition: Competitive pressure from rivals like MSFT in cloud security.
• Execution Risk: CCP program headwinds and challenging performance relative to 2025. Maintaining high retention rates (GRR 97%) and modules sold is crucial.

Key Catalysts for Upside (520 PT)

• Superior endpoint security expertise and platform stickiness.
• Continued land-and-expand strategy, aiming for stable 120% net retention.
• Higher utilization of Falcon Flex dollars and tiered engagement.

Analysts expe the company's strong market position to drive resilience despite near-term headwinds.