2025-06-04-Jefferies-艾迪恩（ADYEN）_2025年访问Adyen总部_与首席财务官Ethan_Tandowsky会面的关键要点_9页_404kb

Adyen Equity Research Summary - June 4, 2025

Meeting Key Takeaways:

• Positive impression from CFO Ethan Tandowsky, highlighting confidence in mid-term growth opportunities.
• Strong momentum in Europe (56% of 2024 revenue), with all verticals showing growth in 2024.
• Revenue drivers include ongoing GPN-WP merger, new sales hires, and product initiatives like Uplift.
• Uplift optimization expected to improve customer satisfaction and enable additional revenue from cross-selling.

Current Trends and Valuation:

• Rating: BUY, with a price target of €2,039 (up 22% from prior target).
• TPV growth driven by Digital, Unified Commerce, and Platforms segments, with net revenue projected to rise 23% year-over-year for 2025.
• Valuation: Trading at 43x forward P/E vs. 95x pre-COVID, with EV/EBITDA at 29x vs. 69x prior.
• Key risks: Increased competition, macroeconomic factors, and challenge adoption of new product launches.

Earnings Outlook:

• Model TPV growth to 7% year-over-year for Q2 2025, with net revenue up 22% compared to prior estimates.
• EBITDA margin targeted at 52%, aligning with guidance, and free cash flow showing steady improvement.
• No update provided on the 2026 Mid-term Ambition yet, but confidence in HSD-LDD growth.

Company Context:

• Adyen provides payment infrastructure, unified commerce solutions, and issuing/banking services globally.
• Founded in 2006, went public in 2018, with a current market capitalization of €52.6B.

Investment Thesis:

• Adyen is well-positioned to capture market share from potential RFPs and benefit from market consolidation.
• Buy recommendation supported by strong pipeline, sales hires, and expected medium-term opportunities.