2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Cambodia_Staff_Report_for_the_2013_Article_IV_Consultation_60页_1mb

Cambodia: 2013 Article IV Consultation Summary

Core Content

The 2013 Article IV Consultation with Cambodia, conducted by the IMF, assessed the country's economic performance, outlook, and policy challenges. The consultation aimed to support fiscal and monetary reforms, enhance financial stability, and promote sustainable and inclusive growth.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Performance and Outlook

• Growth: Cambodia maintained strong economic growth in 2013, driven by robust exports (especially garment exports benefiting from EU preferential access), tourism, and construction. Despite challenges like floods and election-related slowdowns, growth is projected to stay at 7% in 2013 and rise to $7 \frac{1}{4}$% in 2014 and $7 \frac{1}{2}$% in the medium term.
• Inflation: Inflation is expected to remain low at 3-4% due to stable commodity prices and no fuel subsidies.
• Credit Growth: Private sector credit growth has been rapid, averaging 30% annually over the past three years, with a credit-to-GDP ratio exceeding 40%. This poses risks to financial stability.
• External Stability: The current account deficit remains around 8.5% of GDP, fully funded by FDI and official flows. The real effective exchange rate has remained broadly flat since 2008, suggesting alignment with fundamentals.

Risks and Challenges

• Downside Risks: These include slow European growth, labor market instability, extreme weather, and fiscal risks.
• Risk Assessment Matrix (RAM):
  • Protracted economic and financial volatility: High likelihood, medium impact.
  • Global oil price shock: Low likelihood, medium impact.
  • Slower European growth: High likelihood, medium impact.
  • Labor market instability: Medium likelihood, high impact.
  • Extreme weather: Medium likelihood, high impact.
  • Fiscal risks: Medium likelihood, medium impact.
  • Financial sector risks: Medium likelihood, high impact.

Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal Consolidation: The fiscal position has improved due to strong revenue performance, with the deficit (excluding grants) expected to narrow by 0.5 percentage points in 2013. However, government deposits (the only fiscal buffer) are projected to decline slightly to 4.75% of GDP.
• 2014 Budget: A 25% increase in the wage bill is planned, which may increase the wage bill to 5.5% of GDP. This should be part of broader civil service reform to avoid jeopardizing fiscal consolidation.
• Revenue Mobilization Strategy (RMS): The government is committed to increasing domestic revenue by 0.5 percentage points of GDP annually, which would help reduce the fiscal deficit (excluding grants) by about 3 percentage points from 2013 to 2018.
• Public Finance Management (PFM): Improvements in tax administration and donor coordination are essential for fiscal sustainability. The adoption of a new chart of accounts and FMIS is planned for 2015.

Monetary Policy and Financial Sector

• Monetary Policy Tool: The only monetary policy tool is reserve requirements, which have been raised to 12.5% on foreign currency deposits. However, this tool is limited in effectiveness due to high dollarization and lack of an interbank market.
• Liquidity Risk Management: Recent deposit withdrawals highlighted fragile banking sector confidence. Strengthening liquidity risk management, including better monitoring of usable liquidity buffers, is a priority.
• Credit Growth Containment: Steps are needed to control credit growth, including expanding the base of reserve requirements and better monitoring of real estate developments.
• Financial Sector Reforms: The implementation of 2010 FSAP recommendations, strengthening AML/CFT regimes, and improving banking supervision are essential to maintain financial stability.

Policy Recommendations

• Fiscal: Continue fiscal consolidation, implement civil service reforms, and enhance revenue mobilization through tax reforms and improved governance.
• Monetary: Develop interbank and foreign exchange markets, improve liquidity forecasting, and strengthen the NBC's lender-of-last-resort capacity.
• Financial Sector: Contain credit growth, improve banking supervision, and establish a crisis management framework.

Conclusion

The consultation emphasized the need for continued fiscal and monetary reforms to ensure macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth. While Cambodia's economy remains resilient, the risks from external shocks, labor disputes, and financial sector vulnerabilities require careful management and policy coordination. The authorities acknowledged the recommendations and expressed commitment to fiscal and financial sector reforms.