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CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST: Episode 52 Summary

Core Content

This episode of the Carnegie-Tsinghua China in the World podcast, hosted by Tong Zhao and featuring John Garver, explores the impact of China's rise on its relationships with the United States and its neighbors in the Asia-Pacific region. The discussion centers on the strategic implications of China's growing power, the concept of a "new type of great power relations," and the challenges of managing a great power transition.

Main Points

U.S. Strategic Objective in Asia-Pacific

• The U.S. has historically aimed to prevent any single power from dominating the Asia-Pacific, a policy rooted in the "open door" principle from 1898.
• This objective was reaffirmed during the Cold War and continues today, with the U.S. wary of China's assertiveness in regional affairs.

China's Assertive Behavior and Neighbors' Perceptions

• China's increasingly assertive actions in the South China Sea, including land reclamation and military build-up, are perceived as threats by its neighbors, such as the Philippines, Vietnam, and Japan.
• These neighbors, many of whom are U.S. allies, are turning to the U.S. for support, creating a security dilemma that the U.S. views as a potential path to Chinese hegemony.

The Concept of "New Type of Great Power Relations"

• The idea of a new type of great power relations, proposed by China, is framed as a way to avoid the "Thucydides trap" and reduce confrontation.
• However, Garver argues that this concept is not practically effective due to the asymmetry in U.S. and Chinese governmental structures and the way China uses principles as leverage in negotiations.

U.S. Skepticism and Negotiation Tactics

• The U.S. is skeptical of China's commitment to respecting core interests, as it perceives China's use of principles as a negotiating tactic.
• Richard Solomon's study on China's negotiating strategy highlights how China leverages agreed principles to push its agenda, even when the U.S. has not formally committed to them.

Great Power Transition and Tensions

• The current tensions in the South China Sea are seen as a manifestation of the great power transition.
• The U.S. fears that China's continued expansion in military and economic influence could lead to regional hegemony, especially if neighbors like the Philippines and Vietnam align with the U.S. in defense of their interests.

Key Information

• China's Territorial Claims: China officially does not claim the entire South China Sea as its territorial waters, but its actions in the region are seen as provocative.
• Freedom of Navigation: While civilian shipping is not affected, the U.S. is concerned about the impact of China's military presence on freedom of navigation.
• Regional Alliances: The Philippines' alliance with the U.S. is a key factor in the current security dynamics.
• Cultural and Economic Ties: Despite the strategic tensions, U.S.-China relations are strong due to cultural and economic interdependence.
• Cooperation Opportunities: Garver suggests that cooperation on issues like the Iran nuclear talks and Afghanistan could help reduce strategic mistrust.

Conclusion

The podcast highlights the complex interplay between China's rising power and the U.S.'s strategic concerns in the Asia-Pacific. While both sides express a desire to avoid confrontation, the structural and cultural differences between the two nations complicate their ability to manage the transition. Garver emphasizes the importance of mutual understanding and cooperation in mitigating the risks of a security dilemma.