2003-10-13-皮尤-The_Rise_Of_The_Second_Generation_9页_196kb

Summary of "The Rise of the Second Generation: Changing Patterns in Hispanic Population Growth"

Introduction

The report, published by the Pew Hispanic Center and Urban Institute in 2003, examines a fundamental shift in the Hispanic population's growth dynamics. Once dominated by immigration, the rise of the second generation (U.S.-born children of immigrants) is now projected to surpass the first generation (foreign-born) in size by 2020. This change has significant implications for education, labor markets, and public policy due to the substantial differences in characteristics between generations.

Key Demographic Shifts

• Historical Context (1970-2000): Immigration accounted for 45% of Hispanic population growth, with immigrants making up 40% of the population. The second generation accounted for 28%, while third-plus generations (those born U.S.-born with U.S.-born parents) made up 32%.
• Projections (2000-2020): Using mid-range immigration estimates, the second generation is expected to grow faster than the first generation, contributing 47% to the 25 million projected population increase. By 2020, the second generation will outnumber the first generation (21.7 million vs. 20.6 million).
• Impact of Higher Immigration: Even with a 50% increase in immigration, the second generation's growth persists, delaying overtaking to 2025. Overall, the demographic transition underscores an inevitable shift.

Generational Characteristics

• Language: First generation Hispanics (foreign-born) are mostly Spanish-dominant, while second generation is highly bilingual, and third-plus generations are primarily English-speaking.
• Education: Second and third generation Hispanics have higher educational attainment. For instance, half of first-generation individuals lacked a high school diploma in 2000, compared to a quarter or less in native-born groups.
• Income: First-generation Hispanics earn less (median $457 weekly in 2003) than second ($$535) and third-plus ($$550) generations.
• Intermarriage: Rates are lower in the first generation (8%), increasing to 32% in the second and 57% in the third-plus generations.

Societal Impacts

• Education: By 2020, the second generation will add 4.4 million more school-age students (aged 5-19), making up 13.4% of the total student enrollment, with one in seven new students being second-generation Hispanics.
• Labor Force: The second generation contributes significantly to Latino labor force growth, accounting for 43% of the increase by 2020. By 2020, Spanish-origin Hispanics are projected to add 12.6 million workers, compared to non-Hispanic growth of 11.6 million.
• Median Age and Youth Dominance: The second generation is young and growing rapidly, with a median age of 17.2 by 2020, accounting for about two-thirds of the population being under 18. This will heavily influence policy challenges, particularly in education and workforce development.

Conclusion

The rise of the second generation represents a demographic inevitability, driven by past immigration and high fertility rates. These individuals, as U.S. citizens, will have distinct social, economic, and cultural impacts, likely shaping national demographics through 2050, where a new third-plus generation (children of second-generation Hispanics) will emerge. This shift demands attention for long-term policy, education, and societal adaptation.