20220124-银河期货-商品估值_周期报告_192页_10mb

报告摘要

银河期货商品估值&周期报告总结

核心内容概述

本报告由银河期货分析师潘盛杰发布，涵盖多种商品期货的估值与周期分析，旨在通过历史数据与当前市场表现的对比，揭示各商品的价格走势及市场周期特征。报告采用近月结算价作为基础数据，若无近月数据则引用现货价格。同时，引入了“相对强弱”指标和“肥尾指数”来衡量商品的市场表现和极端行情的可能性。

主要观点

相对强弱指标：用于衡量商品当前涨幅在自身历史周期中的位置，数值越高表示当前涨幅越强。
肥尾指数：反映数据的极端波动情况，数值越大，表示正反馈越明显，极端行情风险越高。
周期分析：选取质数年（1年、2年、3年、5年、7年、11年）作为主要分析周期，其余周期为质数年周期的展开。

关键信息

估值报告概览

商品	A 97%分位同比变动	B 3%分位同比变动	(A-B) 域	H 肥尾指数	日度价格取样个数	C 本周同比变动	D 1周前同比变动	E 2周前同比变动	F 3周前同比变动	(C-B)/(A+B) 本周相对强弱	(D-B)/(A+B) 1周前相对强弱	(E-B)/(A+B) 2周前相对强弱	(F-B)/(A+B) 3周前相对强弱
SN	99%	-26%	125%	38.6%	1665	115.9%	113.7%	105.8%	102.3%	113.9%	112.1%	105.8%	103.0%
AL	41%	-31%	72%	32.3%	6507	46.5%	45.1%	37.1%	32.8%	107.2%	105.2%	94.1%	88.0%
L	19%	-27%	47%	36.9%	3526	18.6%	18.1%	16.4%	15.4%	98.6%	97.6%	94.0%	91.8%
UR	47%	-27%	74%	35.2%	598	43.2%	45.7%	46.9%	41.9%	95.0%	98.4%	100.0%	93.3%
SS	33%	-26%	58%	44.2%	566	24.7%	23.2%	20.8%	21.1%	86.4%	84.0%	79.8%	80.4%
FU	66%	-60%	126%	38.3%	858	48.2%	27.4%	30.1%	33.1%	85.8%	69.3%	71.5%	73.8%
OI	48%	-33%	81%	38.7%	3563	36.3%	34.3%	35.6%	43.0%	85.7%	83.3%	84.9%	94.0%
SA	72%	-38%	110%	38.3%	519	56.0%	53.3%	53.5%	63.5%	85.6%	83.1%	83.4%	92.4%
EB	43%	-49%	92%	37.0%	565	21.0%	21.0%	23.6%	21.3%	75.9%	75.9%	78.7%	76.2%
V	43%	-20%	63%	36.4%	3083	27.5%	24.1%	22.3%	21.4%	74.9%	69.4%	66.7%	65.2%
LU	62%	-64%	126%	40.3%	388	27.5%	19.5%	15.1%	15.3%	72.5%	66.2%	62.6%	62.8%
RM	35%	-27%	62%	39.6%	2205	17.7%	24.0%	27.2%	23.5%	72.0%	82.3%	87.6%	81.5%
P	92%	-34%	126%	37.6%	3467	51.2%	42.1%	42.6%	37.9%	67.7%	60.5%	60.9%	57.2%
TA	52%	-43%	94%	38.8%	3674	21.1%	19.1%	14.9%	13.2%	67.7%	65.6%	61.2%	59.4%
BU	56%	-52%	108%	44.6%	2025	20.6%	12.3%	14.0%	14.5%	67.1%	59.3%	60.9%	61.4%
CF	98%	-33%	131%	42.3%	4298	53.6%	54.4%	52.1%	53.8%	66.2%	66.8%	65.1%	66.4%
PG	59%	-47%	106%	43.7%	445	22.5%	19.7%	15.2%	11.7%	65.7%	63.1%	58.8%	55.6%
SC	82%	-51%	132%	32.3%	933	35.9%	29.0%	23.3%	23.4%	65.5%	60.3%	56.0%	56.1%
CS	32%	-24%	55%	36.2%	1729	11.0%	12.2%	15.6%	16.3%	62.8%	64.9%	71.1%	72.4%
C	39%	-29%	68%	40.4%	4217	13.3%	13.9%	15.7%	16.9%	62.3%	63.1%	65.8%	67.5%
SF	78%	-27%	104%	41.6%	1818	36.0%	31.6%	28.9%	32.7%	60.2%	55.9%	53.3%	57.0%
SM	51%	-32%	83%	41.0%	1818	18.1%	22.4%	20.5%	24.8%	59.9%	65.0%	62.8%	68.0%
CU	76%	-30%	106%	28.1%	6510	30.9%	31.9%	29.5%	29.9%	57.8%	58.7%	56.4%	56.8%
HC	58%	-33%	91%	32.9%	1914	18.1%	16.4%	14.2%	13.4%	56.2%	54.3%	51.8%	51.0%
Y	78%	-30%	108%	38.1%	3904	30.1%	19.3%	18.2%	20.7%	55.9%	45.9%	44.9%	47.1%
PP	38%	-32%	70%	37.4%	1929	6.8%	6.0%	6.0%	3.4%	55.4%	54.2%	54.1%	50.4%
MA	58%	-42%	100%	36.4%	2492	12.8%	6.9%	9.4%	12.5%	54.6%	48.7%	51.2%	54.3%
SP	55%	-34%	89%	47.2%	769	14.4%	19.5%	16.8%	16.9%	54.1%	59.9%	56.8%	56.9%
AU	42%	-23%	64%	31.2%	3417	1.7%	1.8%	-1.4%	1.2%	37.8%	37.9%	33.0%	37.1%
JD	46%	-31%	78%	42.8%	2003	-2.2%	1.2%	9.3%	9.8%	37.6%	41.9%	52.4%	53.0%
ZC	68%	-31%	99%	33.8%	2029	2.3%	4.6%	-3.5%	18.5%	33.4%	35.7%	27.5%	49.8%
SR	66%	-26%	92%	36.8%	3905	4.3%	4.4%	4.9%	6.8%	33.2%	33.4%	33.9%	35.9%
JM	167%	-40%	207%	38.4%	2153	56.7%	68.2%	52.7%	50.8%	46.7%	52.2%	44.8%	43.8%
ZN	133%	-52%	185%	37.3%	3612	28.4%	25.3%	23.3%	22.2%	43.5%	41.8%	40.8%	40.2%
RU	76%	-42%	119%	29.3%	6300	7.5%	9.0%	7.5%	9.8%	42.0%	43.3%	42.0%	44.0%
B	81%	-27%	108%	41.0%	4157	17.4%	6.4%	3.9%	11.5%	41.0%	30.9%	28.6%	35.6%
J	119%	-43%	162%	39.4%	2624	22.9%	26.5%	21.3%	20.3%	40.8%	43.0%	39.8%	39.2%
M	65%	-28%	93%	36.2%	5230	8.1%	12.1%	12.5%	16.8%	39.1%	43.4%	43.9%	48.4%