2024-11-24-IEA-2024年11月石油市场月报比较分析（英）_24页_550kb

报告摘要

2024 Global Demand Growth: OPEC revised its projection downward to 1.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) y/y, below the 10-year average. EIA forecast an upward revision to 1.0 mb/d y/y, while IEA kept its forecast unchanged. For 2025, EIA adjusted downward to 1.2 mb/d y/y, and OPEC lowered to 1.5 mb/d. India is a major driver of global consumption growth, accounting for about a quarter of it.
Agencies' Alignment: Divergence narrowed; 2024 forecast differences are about 0.9 mb/d, and 2025 about 0.5 mb/d, with OPEC's estimates being the highest.
Regional Highlights: OECD demand saw modest growth, while Non-OECD contributions were revised, with Africa and India showing key impacts.

Non-OPEC Supply Growth: EIA raised its projection to 1.6 mb/d y/y for 2025, with US and Canada leading due to robust production capabilities. OPEC maintained stable supply growth, attributing increases to non-DoC sources. US production is expected to grow by approximately 0.3 mb/d in 2024 and another 0.3 mb/d in 2025.
DoC (OPEC+) Supply Balance: OPEC's "call on DoC" for 2024 exceeds EIA estimates by about 2.8 mb/d in 4Q24, and for 2025, the gap is over 2.2 mb/d, indicating discrepancies between forecasted needs and actual production potential.
Agencies' Divergence: Short-term non-DoC supply forecasts vary, with differences around 0.2 mb/d for 2024, narrowing from initial gaps.

2024 Projections: OPEC's demand forecast remains the highest, differing significantly from IEA and EIA. All agencies show upward or slight downward revisions, with convergence improving. Non-OPEC supply is expected to grow strongly, driven by US output.
2025 Projections: Global demand is projected to primarily be fueled by Non-OECD regions. Supply remains aligned between EIA and IEA for non-OPEC, with continued growth. OPEC's downward adjustments reflect lower non-OECD demand.

Global growth rates are below historical averages, with demand and supply forecasts showing closer alignment among agencies for 2025.
Drivers: India's consumption, US/Canada oil production, and OPEC+ dynamics are central to market balance. Uncertainties include geopolitical factors and data revisions.
Outlook: 2024 sees moderate demand, with 2025 likely experiencing increased Non-OECD contributions to demand, offset by supply growth elsewhere.

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