2023-07-04-联合国粮农组织-粮食展望——全球粮食市场双年度报告_160页_13mb

Food Outlook Summary

Core Content

The Food Outlook is a biannual report by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) on global food markets, published in June 2023. It provides forecasts for food production, trade, utilization, and prices across key commodities, highlighting both the opportunities and challenges in global food systems.

Main Points

Global Food Production and Supply Outlook

• Global food production systems remain vulnerable to shocks from extreme weather, geopolitical tensions, policy changes, and market developments.
• Cereal production is expected to increase by 1.0 percent in 2023 to 2813 million tonnes, with the majority of the increase coming from maize.
• Wheat production is forecast to fall by 3.0 percent to 776.7 million tonnes in 2023, primarily due to declines in Russia, Australia, and Ukraine.
• Coarse grains production is expected to rise by 3.0 percent in 2023 to 1513 million tonnes, with maize being the main driver of growth.
• Rice production is forecast to recover by 1.3 percent to 523.5 million tonnes in 2023/24, although output in Asia could remain below previous records.
• Oilcrop production is expected to rebound in 2022/23, driven by increased soybean and rapeseed output, while sunflower seed production could decline due to the war in Ukraine.

Global Food Utilization and Trade

• Cereal utilization is projected to rise by 0.9 percent to 2803.8 million tonnes in 2023/24, with feed use being the dominant factor.
• Wheat utilization is forecast to remain nearly stable at 780.3 million tonnes, with a marginal increase in food consumption and feed use.
• Coarse grains utilization is expected to increase by 1.7 percent in 2023/24, driven by higher feed and industrial use.
• Rice utilization is anticipated to stabilize around 520.1 million tonnes in 2023/24, with food use increasing slightly.
• Oilcrop utilization is forecast to grow modestly, with oilmeals and vegetable oils expected to see increased supplies and trade.

Global Food Stocks and Prices

• Global cereal stocks are projected to rise by 1.7 percent to a record 873 million tonnes by the end of 2023/24, although wheat and sorghum stocks may decline.
• Wheat prices are expected to start the 2023/24 season at lower levels, down 35 percent from May 2022 but 4 percent above the five-year average.
• Coarse grain prices have declined, with the FAO Coarse Grain Price Index dropping to 154 points in May 2023, down 0.2 percent from the previous year.
• Rice prices have reached their highest level since October 2011, driven by strong Asian demand and production disruptions in 2022/23.
• Sugar prices have increased sharply due to tighter global supplies and higher import costs.
• Oilcrop prices remain above recent average levels, with continued expansion in planted areas and yields expected.

Market Trends and Regional Impacts

• Global meat production is forecast to increase marginally in 2023, led by poultry meat, despite challenges from animal diseases and high costs.
• Meat trade is expected to grow slightly due to increased import demand in Asia.
• Dairy production is projected to grow slowly in 2023, affected by extreme weather and lower producer margins.
• Fisheries are expected to see a slowdown in production growth, with capture fisheries declining and aquaculture contributing to the overall balance.
• Food inflation in net food importing developing countries (NFIDCs) is a major concern, with rising international cereal prices and currency movements affecting import costs and food security.

Key Information

• FAO Price Indices: The FAO Cereal Price Index dropped to 129.7 points in May 2023, down 25.3 percent from the previous year's record. The FAO Wheat Price Index also declined, reaching 138 points in May 2023.
• Trade Dynamics: Global cereal trade is expected to remain stable at around 472 million tonnes, with declines in wheat trade offset by increases in coarse grains and rice trade. Sugar trade is projected to contract due to lower export availabilities and higher import costs.
• Policy and Market Developments: The report includes a special feature on food inflation in NFIDCs, examining the impact of international cereal price increases and currency movements on these countries.
• Key Contributors: The report was prepared under the guidance of Boubaker Ben-Belhassen and Upali W. Galketi Aratchilage, with contributions from a team of economists and the International Grains Council.

Structure and Format

• The report includes market summaries, market assessments, special features, and statistical tables.
• Cereal, wheat, coarse grains, rice, oilcrops, meat, dairy, and fisheries are analyzed separately.
• The FAO Price Indices are highlighted as key indicators of market trends.
• Contact information and acknowledgments are provided for further inquiries and recognition of contributors.

Conclusion

The Food Outlook provides a comprehensive overview of global food markets, emphasizing the resilience of production systems despite various challenges. It underscores the importance of monitoring supply and demand dynamics, as well as the impact of geopolitical and economic factors on food prices and security. The report serves as a critical resource for policymakers, traders, and stakeholders in the global food industry.