20140829-新鸿基金融集团-Investment_Daily_Note_11页_1mb

报告摘要

Investment Daily Note Summary - 29 August 2014

Core Content Overview

This daily note provides an analysis of the Hong Kong and global stock markets, including key stock performances, index movements, ETF updates, economic data, and market valuations. It also includes information on upcoming results, market data, and analyst disclosures.

Main Market Performance

U.S. Markets:
- Dow Jones: Closed at 17,079, down 42 points.
- S&P 500: Closed at 1,996, down 3 points.
- NASDAQ: Closed at 4,557, down 11 points.
- Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and retail earnings negatively impacted investor sentiment.
- Gold prices rose due to geopolitical concerns, with New York gold futures at $1,290.40/oz.
- Oil prices increased, with New York crude oil futures at $94.55/bbl.
Hong Kong Markets:
- Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell to 24,741, down 177 points, with an intraday low at 24,679.
- HSCEI: Closed at 10,931, down 142 points.
- Market Turnover: Reached HK$80.4bn, indicating increased trading activity.
- Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) was the worst-performing blue chip, down 6.7%.
- Luye Pharma (2186.HK) rose 23.6% due to its acquisition of Beijing Jialin Pharmaceutical.
- Country Garden (2007.HK) and China Resources Land (1109.HK) dropped over 7% and 2.7% respectively due to a rights issue announcement.
- China Telecom (728.HK) surged 9.3% on forecast-beating interim earnings, leading gains for China Unicom (762.HK) and China Mobile (941.HK).

Top Picks

Haichang Holdings (2255.HK):
- Last Price: HK$1.48
- Target: HK$1.67
- Stop Loss: HK$1.37
- Reason: Strong growth potential in China's tourism industry, with recent improvement in operations and property development. The stock had a significant price drop, making it potentially attractive for investment.
China Jiuhao Health (419):
- Last Price: HK$0.49
- Target: HK$0.56
- Stop Loss: HK$0.45
- Reason: Turned a profit of HK$95.29mn in the first half of 2014.
China Telecom (728.HK):
- Last Price: HK$4.66
- Target: HK$5.22
- Stop Loss: HK$4.28
- Reason: Better-than-expected earnings and approval for LTE network trials in more cities, expected to increase 4G customers.

Upcoming Results and Profit Forecasts

For the 6 months ended June 30, 2014:
- Beijing Ent (392.HK): Adjusted net profit up 21.6% yoy to HKD2.51bn.
- CCB (939.HK): Adjusted net profit up 7.9% yoy to RMB129.4bn.
- Huadian Power (1071.HK): Adjusted net profit up 53.2% yoy to RMB2.7bn.
- CM Bank (3968.HK): Adjusted net profit up 14% yoy to RMB29.95bn.

Economic Data and Events

Friday, 29 August:
- Japan: Jobless Rate (Jul) at 3.7%, National CPI YoY at 3.4%, Industrial Production MoM at 1.0%.
- U.S.: Personal Income (Jul) at 0.3%, Personal Spending (Jul) at 0.2%, Chicago Purchasing Manager (Aug) at 56.5%, University of Michigan Confidence (Aug) at 80.0%.
Monday, 1 September:
- China: Manufacturing PMI (Aug) at 51.2, HSBC China Manufacturing PMI (Aug F) at 50.3.
- Japan: Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI (Aug F) at --, previous at 52.4.
- Eurozone: Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Aug F) at --, previous at 50.8.
Tuesday, 2 September:
- U.S.: Markit US Manufacturing PMI (Aug F) at --, previous at 58.0.
- U.S.: ISM Manufacturing (Aug) at 56.6, previous at 57.1.
Wednesday, 3 September:
- Australia: GDP YoY (2Q) at 3.0%.
- Japan: Markit/JMMA Japan Composite PMI (Aug) at --, previous at 50.2.
- China: HSBC China Composite PMI (Aug) at --, previous at 51.6.
- Eurozone: Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (Aug F) at --, previous at 52.8.
- U.S.: MBA Mortgage Applications (Aug 29) at --, previous at 2.8%.
- U.S.: Factory Orders (Jul) at 3.5%, previous at 1.1%.

Major Index Valuations and Forward P/E

HSI: Forward P/E at 11.4, below the long-term average of 12.1.
HSCEI: Forward P/E at 7.6, significantly below the long-term average of 9.9.
Shanghai Composite: Forward P/E at 8.7, below the long-term average of 12.6.
S&P 500: Forward P/E at 16.7, above the long-term average of 14.3.

Market Data

Best Performers (1 Day)

China Telecom (728.HK): +5.7%
Guangdong Investment (270.HK): +1.5%
China Unicom (762.HK): +1.5%
Huaneng Power (902.HK): +1.2%
Hang Lung Properties (101.HK): +1.2%

Worst Performers (1 Day)

Sinofert (297.HK): -4.0%
Dongfeng Group (489.HK): -3.9%
BYD Company (1211.HK): -3.6%
Shangdong Weigao (1066.HK): -3.5%
China Comm Cons (3968.HK): -3.5%

Energy and Raw Material Prices

Gold: US$1,290.6/oz, up 0.8% in 5 days.
Silver: US$19.5/oz, up 0.6% in 5 days.
Aluminum: US$2,081.0/t, up 0.2% in 5 days.
Copper: US$6,934.0/t, down 1.1% in 5 days.
Hot Roll Steel: US$542.5/t, flat in 5 days.
Cotton: US$70.5/lb, up 0.9% in 5 days.
CRB Index: 291.3, up 0.8% in 5 days.
Brent Crude: US$102.4/barrel, up 0.6% in 5 days.
WTI Crude: US$94.6/barrel, down 1.8% in 5 days.

Companies Listed on Both A-Share and H-Share Markets

Shandong Molong (568.HK): H-share price HK$4.230, A-share price RMB9.310, A-share premium to H-share: 177.7%.
NE Electric (42.HK): H-share price HK$2.190, A-share price RMB4.210, A-share premium to H-share: 142.5%.
Luoyang Glass (1108.HK): H-share price HK$3.800, A-share price RMB7.240, A-share premium to H-share: 140.4%.
Beiren Printing (187.HK): H-share price HK$3.930, A-share price RMB6.550, A-share premium to H-share: 110.3%.
Other notable companies include Dongfeng Group, China Coal, Weichai Power, and Angang Steel, with varying premiums and price movements.

Analysts

Kenny Wen
Jason Tsang

Disclosure and Conflicts of Interest

The views expressed in the report reflect the personal views of the research analysts.
Analysts have no financial interests in the listed corporations covered.
SHK Financial may have financial interests in the issuers, including market-making, trading, or advisory roles.
Full disclosure of conflicts of interest is available at: http://www.shkresearch.com/rp/disclosureOfInterests.html