2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Review_of_the_Fund39s_Income_Position_for_FY_2017_and_FY_2018_48页_1mb

IMF Policy Paper Summary: Review of the Fund's Income Position for FY 2017 and FY 2018

Core Content

This document provides a detailed review and analysis of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) income position for the financial years 2017 and 2018. It outlines the projected net income, the disposition of funds, and the policy decisions related to the Fund's reserves and the rate of charge margin.

Main Changes and Projections

FY 2017 Income Position

• Total net income: Estimated at SDR 1.7 billion, which is SDR 0.7 billion higher than the initial April 2016 estimate.
• Key factors:
  • IAS 19 adjustment: Expected to contribute about SDR 0.4 billion to net income. This relates to changes in actuarial assumptions for pension and employee benefits.
  • Investment income: Increased by SDR 297 million, primarily due to improved performance in the Endowment Subaccount, which saw investment income rise to SDR 461 million.
  • Lending income: Projected at SDR 0.85 billion, slightly lower than the initial estimate of SDR 0.9 billion.
  • Surcharges: Estimated at SDR 0.58 billion, which is 9% below the previous projection due to delays in disbursements and early repurchases.

FY 2018 Income Outlook

• Projected net income: SDR 0.7 billion.
• Factors influencing projections:
  • Timing and amounts of disbursements under approved arrangements.
  • Possible new arrangements.
  • Performance of the Fund's investment portfolio.
  • Annual pension expense under IAS 19.
• Reserves: Precautionary balances are projected to reach SDR 16.4 billion by the end of FY 2017, and the Fund will continue to add to them using the projected net income.

Key Policy Decisions

Disposition of FY 2017 Net Income

• Fixed-Income Subaccount (FI): SDR 75 million of FY 2017 income will be transferred to the General Resources Account (GRA) to meet the Fund's expenses.
• Endowment Subaccount: Projected investment income of SDR 461 million will be added to retained earnings and not included in operating income.
• Reserve Allocation: Net income from GRA (excluding endowment retained earnings) of SDR 1.2 billion will be equally allocated to the special and general reserves.
• Transfer to Investment Account (IA): Currencies equivalent to the increase in reserves (SDR 1.2 billion) will be transferred from GRA to IA for investment in the Fixed-Income Subaccount.

Rate of Charge Margin

• Margin: Remains at 100 basis points for FY 2017 and FY 2018.
• Reasoning: The margin was set in April 2016 and is not expected to change unless there are fundamental changes in the underlying factors.
• Review: The Executive Board conducted a review of the margin in the context of the two-year period and concluded that the current level is appropriate.

Reserves and Financial Structure

Special Reserve

• Established in 1957, initially funded by a gold investment program.
• Income from the investment program was placed in the special reserve until 1972.
• Since then, the Fund has allocated its net operational income to the special reserve.
• FY 2017 allocation: The special reserve is projected to increase by SDR 0.6 billion to SDR 5.1 billion.
• Distribution rules: The general reserve may be distributed to members in proportion to their quotas if approved by a 70% majority of the total voting power.

General Reserve

• Introduced in 1958 to distinguish from the special reserve.
• Net operational income was placed in the general reserve during the gold investment program.
• FY 2017 allocation: The general reserve is projected to increase by SDR 0.6 billion to SDR 10.1 billion.

Additional Notes

• SDR Interest Rate: Estimated at 21 basis points for FY 2017, down from the previous projection of 32 basis points.
• USD/SDR Exchange Rate: Averaged US$1.38 per SDR in FY 2017, compared to US$1.40 per SDR in the earlier projection.
• Precautionary Balances: Projected to reach SDR 16.4 billion at the end of FY 2017, reflecting the allocation of GRA net income to reserves.
• Administrative Costs: Reimbursements to the GRA include costs for the SDR Department, PRG Trust, and Special Disbursement Account (SDA) in the CCR Trust.
• Future Review: The allocation method for net income will be revisited at the next annual income review in early 2018.

Conclusion

The IMF's income position for FY 2017 is stronger than initially expected, primarily due to the IAS 19 adjustment and higher investment returns. The margin for the rate of charge is unchanged, and the Fund continues to build its precautionary balances by allocating net income to reserves. The proposed equal allocation of net income to the special and general reserves is consistent with the Fund's new income model and will help maintain an adequate level of reserves for future needs.