20260803-招银国际-2Q26_review_continuous_share_gain_despite_challenging_market_environment_6页_1mb

Coinbase (COIN US) 2Q26 Summary

Core Financial Performance

• Net Revenue: Declined by 14% QoQ to US$1.15bn, slightly below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of US$1.22bn, due to crypto asset price and trading volume headwinds.
• Adjusted EBITDA: Dropped by 31% QoQ to US$208mn, underperforming the consensus of US$327mn.
• Cost Reduction: Achieved US$600mn in cost savings compared to the 2025 annualized exit rate, following a 14% headcount reduction in May.
• Expense Guidance: Management lowered FY26 adjusted expenses guidance to US$4.20–4.45bn from the previous US$4.25–4.60bn.

Business Highlights

• Everything Exchange: Continued to outperform the overall crypto market, with market share increasing by 3.2/1.2 ppts YoY/QoQ to 10.3%.
  • Transaction Revenue: Fell by 21% QoQ to US$599mn (52% of net revenue).
  • Crypto Derivatives Volume: Remained flat QoQ, with market share reaching an all-time high.
• Prediction Markets: Revenue surged by 106% QoQ to US$156mn, with annualized revenue surpassing US$100mn, driven by new features and strong sports events.
• Subscription & Services: Revenue declined by 15% QoQ to US$555mn (48% of net revenue).
• Stablecoin Revenue: Dropped by 4% QoQ to US$292mn, mainly due to declining interest rates.
  • Market Share: USDC and Coinbase's partner stablecoins accounted for 79% of total market stablecoin transaction volume YTD.
• Blockchain Rewards: Revenue fell by 17% QoQ to US$83mn, attributed to crypto asset price and reward rate declines.
• 3Q26 Guidance: Transaction revenue is expected to be US$130mn QTD (1 Jul–26 Jul).
• Subscription & Services Guidance: Expected to be US$500–580mn for 3Q26, largely flat with 2Q26 at the midpoint.

Financial Outlook and Adjustments

• Revenue Forecasts: Lowered FY26–28E total revenue forecasts by 15–17% due to continued weakness in crypto market sentiment.
• Target Price: Trimmed to US$205.00 from US$235.00, with a 40.2% downside from current price US$146.26.
• Earnings Summary:
  • Revenue: FY24A: 6,564mn, FY25A: 7,181mn, FY26E: 5,029mn, FY27E: 5,823mn, FY28E: 6,518mn
  • Net Profit: FY24A: 2,579.1mn, FY25A: 1,260.3mn, FY26E: (919.5)mn, FY27E: 255.2mn, FY28E: 441.6mn
  • EPS (Reported): FY24A: 10.43, FY25A: 4.85, FY26E: (3.48), FY27E: 0.96, FY28E: 1.67
  • Consensus EPS: FY24A: 10.43, FY25A: 4.85, FY26E: (1.47), FY27E: 3.70, FY28E: 5.34
  • P/S Ratio: FY24A: 5.9, FY25A: 5.4, FY26E: 7.7, FY27E: 6.6, FY28E: 5.9

Valuation Analysis

• SOTP Valuation: US$205.00 per share.
  • Transaction Business: Valued at US$130.10 per share (63% of total valuation), based on 35x FY26E EV/EBITDA, which is a premium over traditional exchanges (25x).
  • Stablecoin Business: Valued at US$43.40 per share (21%), based on 27x FY26E EV/EBITDA, on par with Circle.
  • Custodial, Blockchain Rewards & Other Business: Valued at US$13.70 per share (7%), based on 11x FY26E EV/EBITDA, on par with asset management companies.
  • Net Cash: Valued at US$17.80 per share (9%).

Key Financial Metrics

Shareholding and Stock Data

• Market Cap: US$38,576.5mn
• Average 3 Mths t/o: US$738.8mn
• 52w High/Low: US$387.27/141.09
• Total Issued Shares: 263.8mn
• Shareholding Structure:
  • Brian Armstrong: 12.9%
  • The Vanguard Group: 6.2%

Analyst Ratings and Recommendations

• Ratings:
  • BUY: Potential return of over 15% over next 12 months.
  • HOLD: Potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months.
  • SELL: Potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months.
• CMBIGM Recommendation: BUY

Risk and Disclaimer

• Investment Risks: The report contains general information and does not provide individually tailored investment advice.
• No Guarantee: Past performance does not indicate future results; actual events may differ materially.
• Conflicts of Interest: CMBIGM may have investment banking relationships with the companies discussed, which could affect the objectivity of the report.
• Distribution Restrictions:
  • UK: Only for persons under Article 19(5) or Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Financial Promotion Order.
  • US: Intended for "major US institutional investors" only; not for general distribution.
  • Singapore: Distributed by CMBISG, an Exempt Financial Adviser, to Accredited Investors, Expert Investors, or Institutional Investors.

Summary of Key Points

• Coinbase faced a challenging market environment in 2Q26, with net revenue and adjusted EBITDA declining.
• The company maintained market share and showed strong performance in specific segments like Prediction Markets.
• Cost optimization and headcount reduction helped achieve US$600mn in savings.
• Revenue forecasts were revised downward, and the target price was reduced to US$205.00.
• The SOTP valuation model was used, with the transaction business being the largest component.
• Analysts maintain a BUY rating, highlighting the company's resilience and growth potential in a tough market.