全球资金流向与流动性复盘_32页_3mb

Summary of Flows & Liquidity Analysis

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of equity and bond fund flows, as well as insights into the impact of upcoming large AI company IPOs and the performance of cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and altcoins compared to Bitcoin.

Main Points

1. Impact of IPO Lock-Up Periods on Free Float Shares

• The typical increase in free float shares after the expiry of the lock-up period in IPOs is primarily due to mechanical reclassification by index providers, not necessarily from selling by insiders or other shareholders.
• The inclusion of the anticipated three large AI company IPOs into equity indices will necessitate significant passive demand from index inclusion and rebalancing.
• We estimate that $410bn of passive buying will occur once the lock-up periods expire, likely in H1 2026.
• This demand could be accommodated by companies releasing previously repurchased shares or non-strategic investors selling to passive funds.
• The increased weights of the newly included companies will come at the expense of existing companies and major tech firms like Mag7, but actual selling of Mag7 stocks may not occur if passive equity fund inflows continue.

2. Equity Market Rotation

• The YTD rotation away from Chinese tech towards Korean and Taiwanese tech continues in the equity futures space.
• There are only tentative signs of a pause in the equity ETF space.
• Inflows into Korean and Taiwanese equities have increased significantly, while China tech has seen a decline in futures positions.
• Offshore ETFs for Korean and Taiwanese equities have shown increasing inflows, indicating a shift in investor preferences.

3. Cryptocurrency Performance

• Ethereum and other altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin since 2023, and this trend is unlikely to change without significant improvements in network activity, DeFi, and real-world applications.
• Despite a market recovery since the Iran conflict, Ethereum ETF flows have only partially recovered, while Bitcoin ETF flows have largely rebounded.
• Institutional positioning in Bitcoin futures has largely recovered, but Ethereum futures remain below pre-deleveraging levels.
• Momentum traders are still underweight both Bitcoin and Ethereum, suggesting that trend-following funds and crypto quant funds have not rebuilt substantial long positions since the October 10, 2025 deleveraging event.
• Altcoins excluding Ethereum have also underperformed Bitcoin due to adverse liquidity conditions, lower market depth, and lack of DeFi growth, along with security issues.

Key Information

Fund Flows

• All Equities flows are at 11.6bn, with a 2025 average of 8.1bn.
• All Bonds flows are at 13.0bn, with a 2025 average of 11.3bn.
• US Equities flows are at 8.3bn, with a 2025 average of 3.5bn.
• Non-US Equities flows are at 3.3bn, with a 2025 average of 4.6bn.
• EM Equities flows are at 0.5bn, with a 2025 average of 0.9bn.
• EM Bonds flows are at 1.54bn, with a 2025 average of 0.5bn.

Cross Asset Positioning

• Equities are at 0.72 percentile.
• Govt Bonds are at 0.52 percentile.
• Credit is at 0.28 percentile.
• Dollar is at 0.47 percentile.
• Commodities ex Gold are at 0.90 percentile.
• Gold is at 0.67 percentile.
• Bitcoin is at 0.66 percentile.
• Korea Equities are at 0.90 percentile.
• Taiwan Equities are at 0.75 percentile.
• China Equities are at 0.19 percentile.

Historical Context

• The free float share typically increases slowly after the lock-up period, reaching around 30%-50% after 6 months.
• The free float share of the S&P 500 has been relatively stable, while the Nasdaq Composite has shown a gradual increase.
• There was a significant decline in the free float share of the Nasdaq from 2020 to 2021 due to the tech IPO and SPAC boom.
• From 2022 to 2024, the free float share increased again as lock-up periods expired and strategic investor holdings were reclassified.

Conclusion

The document highlights the impact of upcoming IPOs on equity market liquidity and index rebalancing, the ongoing shift in investor preferences from Chinese tech to Korean and Taiwanese tech, and the continued underperformance of Ethereum and altcoins against Bitcoin. It underscores the importance of understanding the mechanics of free float share changes and the potential for passive demand from index inclusion, as well as the challenges faced by altcoins in terms of liquidity and adoption.