国际能源署-2023年关键矿产市场回顾（英）-2023.7-83页_1mb

Critical Minerals Market Review 2023 Summary by IEA

Introduction:
Critical minerals are essential for clean energy technologies like EVs and renewable energy systems, driving demand growth amid energy transitions. Geopolitical risks, supply chain bottlenecks, and volatile prices pose challenges, but investment and policy interventions are accelerating.

Key Findings

1. Market Growth

   • Demand for energy transition minerals (copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt) quadrupled between 2017-2022, reaching USD 320 billion in 2022.
   • Clean energy deployment (EVs, solar PV, energy storage) surged, boosting mineral demand:
     • EV sales tripled global lithium demand.
     • Energy storage capacity doubled in 2022.

2. Price Volatility

   • Prices moderated in early 2023 but remained above historical averages.
   • Battery-grade mineral prices (e.g., lithium) were constrained by supply from new projects.
   • Clean energy equipment costs increased in 2022 due to mineral price hikes, but earlier declines reversed decade-long cost trends.

3. Investment & Exploration

   • Global capex on critical minerals rose 30% in 2022, with lithium specialists leading exploration (45% YoY growth).
   • China accounted for USD 4.3 billion in lithium investments (2018-2021), dominating refining but pushing for diversification.

4. Policy Interventions

   • Over 200 policies worldwide, including:
     • EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act and China’s raw material strategy.
     • US Inflation Reduction Act targeting domestic supply chains.
     • Focus on diversification, refining capacity, and recycling incentives.

5. Supply Chain Challenges

   • Geopolitical Concentration: China dominates refining (70% lithium, 90% REEs).
   • ESG Deficits: Environmental indicators (e.g., water use, GHG emissions) lagged despite progress in social metrics like workforce diversity.
   • Recycling Lag: While battery recycling capacity is being developed (China leads), end-of-life EV volumes (150 GWh by 2030) necessitate scaling efforts.

Future Outlook

• Demand Explosion in NZE Scenario: Mineral demand in IEA’s NZE Scenario surges 3.5x by 2030 (up to 30 million tonnes).
• Key Risks:
  • Matching supply with investment execution (delays/cost overruns).
  • Battery-grade vs. aggregate supply imbalances.
  • Policy shifts (e.g., subsidies, trade restrictions).
• Opportunities:
  • Sodium-ion battery growth (targeting stationary storage).
  • Recycled mineral use (e.g., 15% recycled materials by 2030 in EU).
  • Rare mineral diversification (e.g., magnesium, phosphorus).

Conclusions & Recommendations

Fix three challenges:

1. Supply Scale: Expand mining and refining to meet demand in NZE pathways.
2. Security Diversification: Break reliance on concentrated sources (e.g., DRC for cobalt).
3. Sustainability: Mandate traceable, responsible sourcing (ESG-linked procurement).

IEA will host its first international summit on critical minerals (Sep 2023) to coordinate global strategies.