20180906-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_4页_446kb

报告摘要

Market	1D Chg (%)	1M Chg (%)	YTD Chg (%)	18E EPS (%)	19E EPS (%)	18E P/E	19E P/E
HSI	-2.6	-2.1	-8.9	37.1	11.1	11.1	10.0
HSCEI	-2.3	-0.5	-9.1	16.3	11.1	7.6	6.9
MXCN	-3.0	-3.9	-12.2	46.5	15.7	11.8	10.2
SHSZ300	-2.0	0.8	-18.2	32.9	15.4	11.2	9.7
SHCOMP	-1.7	0.0	-18.2	36.9	13.6	10.9	9.6
SZCOMP	-1.6	-0.9	-24.1	69.3	21.8	16.4	13.5
INDU	0.1	1.9	5.1	44.2	9.3	15.2	16.2
SPX	-0.3	1.3	8.0	48.4	10.2	17.9	16.2
CCMP	-1.2	1.7	15.8	84.5	16.0	20.5	20.5
UKX	-1.0	-3.7	-4.0	173.6	7.6	12.2	12.2
NYK	-0.4	-0.1	-1.2	66.9	12.7	14.1	14.1

HK Ticket Company	Local (HK$)	Daily (%)	ADR (US$)	Daily (%)
700 TENCENT	324.8	-4.08	40.4	-3.93
1398 ICBC	5.7	-2.07	14.4	-1.13
939 CCB	6.8	-2.58	17.2	-1.85
857 PETROCHINA	5.7	-2.25	71.9	-1.32
941 CHINA MOBILE	74.0	-2.05	47.8	-1.65
5 HSBC	67.8	-1.45	43.8	-0.73
2318 PING AN	76.0	-1.04	31.0	4.28
3988 BANK OF CHINA	3.5	-1.70	5.6	-0.97
386 SINOPEC	7.4	-3.50	28.0	-1.39
1299 AIA	65.8	-3.24	10.3	-0.63

Policies since July emphasize fiscal support for infrastructure and property sectors.
Infrastructure investment is expected to bottom out soon.
Monetary easing should alleviate liquidity constraints in the property sector, boosting steel demand.
Continued capex supports manufacturing demand.
With peak season approaching, downstream manufacturers' capacity utilization is rising, leading to improved steel demand MoM.

Steel supply is expected to contract due to stricter environmental protection measures.
7M18 pig iron, crude steel, and steel output rose YoY but declined MoM for the first time in 2018.

Dealers' inventory of key steel products decreased MoM by 0.83% but increased YoY by 1.99%.
Steel plant inventory increased MoM by 5.88% and decreased YoY by 10.55%.

Steel prices rose in August, with iron ore prices also up.
Supply/demand balance remains tight, especially in September due to environmental constraints.
Expect steel prices to remain stable, while iron ore prices may weaken.

The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) is expanding the list of state-owned capital investment pilot companies.
Marketization of state-owned platforms is expected to accelerate in 2H18.
Key marketization strategies include:
1. Switching to fund-based operations to attract social capital and reform the industrial landscape.
2. Equity transfers from state-owned platforms to listed companies.
3. Use of ETFs to facilitate the transfer of state-owned shares.
The SOE reform ETF was released on August 27, and state-owned platforms are expected to accelerate share transfers.
Current transfers mainly focus on property and power sectors, with geographical concentration in Shanxi, Beijing, and Guangdong.
Analysts recommend paying close attention to A-share targets that may benefit from state-owned platform equity transfers.

Rating	Description
Buy	Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 15%
Accumulate	Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15%
Hold	Expected relative performance ranges between -5% and 5%
Underperform	Expected to underperform benchmark by more than 5%

Rating	Description
Positive	Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%
Neutral	Expected relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
Cautious	Expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.
The information is subject to change without notice.
GF Securities (Hong Kong) accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of the materials.
Investment involves risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results.

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