2017年-世界发展银行全球_Paraguay_Jobs_Diagnostic___The_Dynamic_Transformation_of_Employment_80页_3mb

Paraguay Jobs Diagnostic Summary

Core Content

This document presents an analysis of the transformation of employment in Paraguay over the past 15 years, focusing on job creation, labor productivity, and job quality. It is part of the Let's Work program, a multi-donor initiative led by the World Bank aimed at improving labor market outcomes through a comprehensive, multi-sectoral approach.

Main Points

Economic Growth and Labor Market Transformation

• Paraguay has experienced robust economic growth and improved labor outcomes over the past 15 years.
• The employment-to-GDP elasticity is 0.55, indicating that economic growth has been sufficient to support job creation.
• Annual net job creation averaged 72,000, with the majority of new jobs in the retail sector (40%), government services (20%), and manufacturing (13%).
• The informality rate fell from 79% to 71% between 2008 and 2015.

Job Quality and Productivity

• Job creation has been accompanied by strong productivity growth within sectors, averaging 2.3% per year in real terms.
• Formal jobs have seen significant growth, with the private sector adding nearly 200,000 formal jobs and the public sector adding 94,000.
• Real wages increased across all sectors, including for self-employed workers and informal wage employees, contributing to reductions in poverty and inequality.
• Agricultural productivity was the main driver of growth in the early part of the period, but other sectors have since gained traction, leading to more diverse productivity gains.

Unequal Access to Jobs

• Informal employment still dominates, particularly among young workers, women, and those with less education.
• There is a gender earnings gap ranging from 18 to 42 percent.
• Household characteristics influence job access, with workers from the bottom 40% of households and rural workers more likely to be in informal jobs.
• Guaraní-speaking households also have higher probabilities of informal employment.
• Formal job transitions are limited, especially for highly educated individuals, due to regulatory and structural barriers.

Structural Transformation

• The economy is transitioning from agriculture to services and, to a lesser extent, industrial activities.
• Urbanization has accelerated, but cities are not well-equipped to absorb the influx of workers into sustainable productive jobs.
• Public sector expansion has played a key role in job creation and improving average wages and job quality.

Challenges for Sustainability

• Informal, low-productivity jobs remain prevalent, raising concerns about the sustainability of future growth.
• Export concentration in capital-intensive agricultural products limits the potential for export-oriented employment.
• Educational quality is a major concern, as despite rising educational attainment, the returns on education are limited due to weak quality.
• A preference for government jobs among tertiary graduates reduces the availability of skilled workers for the private sector, which could hinder productivity growth.

Future Directions

• The Let's Work program aims to address these challenges through labor demand analysis, value chain analysis, and a qualitative youth survey.
• A multi-sectoral jobs strategy is needed to support more, better, and inclusive jobs.
• The program emphasizes collaboration between government, civil society, the private sector, and donors to design effective policies.

Key Information

• Demographic pressures have led to a youth bulge, increasing the labor force by 2.5% annually over the past decade.
• Job creation has outpaced labor force growth, with 2.7% annual net job creation.
• Formal job creation has been double that of informal jobs since 2008.
• Productivity growth has been more significant within sectors than between them.
• Education is a key determinant of job quality and formality, but weak educational quality limits its impact.
• Geographic disparities exist, with urban areas seeing more formal job growth than rural regions.
• Rural workers are moving to urban areas, but many remain in low-productivity sectors like retail and construction.
• Agriculture still plays a central role, contributing to 20% of GDP and a fifth of jobs, but is not the most productive sector.

Conclusion

The Paraguay Jobs Diagnostic highlights the positive labor market outcomes achieved over the past 15 years, including reduced poverty, improved job quality, and increased formal employment. However, it also identifies key challenges such as unequal access to formal jobs, concentrated export markets, and weak educational quality. To sustain and enhance these gains, the country must focus on diversifying economic activities, improving productivity, and enhancing access to high-quality jobs for vulnerable groups. The Let's Work program aims to support these efforts through comprehensive analysis and policy design.