2012-06-20-皮尤-GOP_Holds_Early_Turnout_Edge,_But_Little_Enthusiasm_for_Romney_72页_1mb

2012 Presidential Election Summary

Core Content

This report from the Pew Research Center, dated June 2012, analyzes voter engagement and perceptions in the context of the presidential race between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. It highlights that while voter interest and engagement are high, they are not as robust as in 2008. The election is expected to be close, with both candidates having significant support, but with distinct differences in voter enthusiasm and favorability.

Main Points

• Voter Engagement: Voter engagement is lower than in 2008 but still comparable to previous elections from 1992 to 2004. About two-thirds of registered voters (67%) are giving quite a lot of thought to the election, which is slightly down from 2008 but higher than in earlier years.

• Partisan Differences: Republicans have a slight edge in engagement compared to Democrats. 73% of Republicans give the election a lot of thought, while 66% of Democrats do the same. Similarly, 45% of Republicans pay very close attention to election news, compared to 37% of Democrats.

• Candidate Satisfaction: Democrats are more satisfied with the candidate choices than Republicans. 68% of Democratic voters are satisfied with the field, while 60% of Republican voters are.

• Romney's Edge on Economy: Mitt Romney leads Obama on economic issues, with 49% of registered voters believing he would do the best job of improving economic conditions, compared to 41% for Obama. However, Obama maintains a strong lead in personal traits such as honesty, consistency, and connecting with ordinary Americans.

• Strong Support: Obama has a strong lead in terms of voter support. 30% of registered voters support him strongly, compared to 17% for Romney. Despite this, Romney's supporters are as committed to voting for him as Obama's supporters are for him.

• Demographics:

  • Younger Voters: Engagement among younger voters (under 50) has declined significantly compared to 2008, with only 60% giving the election a lot of thought, down from 71% in 2008.
  • Black Voters: Engagement among black voters remains high, with 71% giving the election a lot of thought and 54% following campaign news closely.
  • Older Voters: Voters 50 and older remain highly engaged, similar to 2008 levels.

• Interest in Politics: Interest in politics has declined since 2008, with only 48% of voters now more interested than before, compared to 63% in 2008. However, this is still the same as in 2004 and higher than in 2000 and 1996.

• Partisan Interest Gap: The partisan interest gap has not closed, with Republicans continuing to follow campaign news more closely than Democrats. This is in contrast to 2008, when Democrats were more engaged.

• Ann Romney's Recognition: Ann Romney is not well known among voters, with 54% having no opinion of her.

Key Information

• Election Horserace: The race is close, with 50% of registered voters supporting Obama and 46% supporting Romney. However, Romney has never led Obama in any of the eight general election matchups since October 2011.

• Favorability:

  • Obama: 50% favorable, 48% unfavorable.
  • Romney: 41% favorable, 47% unfavorable.

• Economic Optimism: Economic optimism has declined, with only 34% of voters expecting improvement over the next year, down from 44% in March. This is a key factor in Romney's favorability on economic issues.

• Turnout Prediction: Voter engagement in June suggests that turnout could be high again, similar to the 2008 election, despite a slight drop in interest compared to that year.

Summary Table

Conclusion

The 2012 presidential election is shaping up to be a closely contested race, with Obama maintaining a strong lead in personal favorability and Democratic engagement. However, Romney holds an advantage on economic issues and has a more enthusiastic base. The overall voter engagement is high but not as intense as in 2008, and the partisan interest gap remains significant. Younger voters are less engaged than in 2008, while older voters and black voters remain highly involved. The report suggests that the election could see a high turnout, similar to 2008, despite the decline in interest among some demographics.