20140730-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_12页_2mb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 30 July 2014

Core Content

This document provides a summary of the oil and gas market and related news, along with analyst ratings and valuation comparisons for companies in Asia, India, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, and Vietnam, as well as major global oil and gas firms. It highlights recent developments in the industry, such as legal actions, production launches, export figures, and financial performance, and includes market price changes and valuation metrics.

Key Market Movements

Crude Oil (Brent): Closed at USD107.72, with a 0.1% increase over the last day and a 0.4% rise over the last week, but a -4.5% decline over the last month.
Crude Oil (WTI): Closed at USD100.97, down 0.7% overnight and -1.4% over the last week, but down -3.9% over the last month.
NYMEX Henry Hub: Closed at USD3.82, up 1.6% over the last day and 1.0% over the last week.
LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Closed at USD11.00, with no change in the last day, but a -3.1% to 14.1% change over the last month.
Gold: Closed at USD1,299.11, down 0.4% over the last day and -1.3% over the last month.
USD-CNY: Closed at 6.18, down 0.1% over the last day and -0.6% over the last month.
DJI: Closed at 16,912.11, down 0.4% over the last day and -1.2% over the last week.
S&P 500: Closed at 1,969.95, down 0.5% over the last day and -0.7% over the last week.

News Highlights

Iraq Seizes Kurdish Crude: The Iraqi Oil Ministry persuaded a US court to seize over USD100m worth of oil in a tanker off Texas, which was allegedly sourced from Kurdistan illegally.
CNOOC Launches Lishui Project: CNOOC has started production at the Lishui gas field off China, with CNOOC holding 51% interest.
Guangxi Petrochemical Exports: Guangxi Petrochemical exported 85kt of oil products in July, mainly gasoline and jet kerosene.
Cue Energy Farming Out PNG: Cue Energy is seeking buyers for its stake in the Gobe unit in PNG, as well as other projects in Indonesia and Australia.
BP's Petrochemicals Loss: BP reported a USD98m loss for its petrochemicals business in 2Q14, compared to a USD24m profit in 2Q13.
Chinese Oilfield Equipment Firms Benefit: Chinese firms may benefit from sanctions on Russia due to their competitive pricing and potential to supply oilfield equipment.

Company Reports

Yinson Holdings

Rating: BUY
Target Price: MYR3.03
Summary: Sells Petroleum Nautipa for USD59m, expected to generate MYR79m gain. Proceeds will be used for new opportunities.
Notes: Short-term earnings may be diluted, but long-term value is expected to increase.

Keppel Corp

Rating: HOLD
Target Price: SGD10.95
Summary: 2Q14 results met expectations. O&M margin increased to 14.5%, aligning with full-year forecast.
Notes: Oversupply in the deep-water rig market and reduced capex may limit share price upside.

NewOcean Energy

Rating: BUY
Target Price: HKD8.88
Summary: Expected to announce 1H results on 15 Aug. Solid results anticipated despite potential forex losses.
Notes: 1H LPG volume on full year run rate of 1.9m MT, with improvements in bunkering fuel volumes.

Vard Holdings

Rating: BUY
Target Price: SGD1.25
Summary: 2Q14 results were disappointing due to lower EBITDA margin. Positive signs include a turnaround at Promar yard and reduced risk at Niteroi yard.
Notes: Forecasts cut by 6%, revised target price based on 1.4x FY15E P/BV.

China Oil & Gas

Rating: NEUTRAL
Summary: Sinopec is the core holding among Asia-focused investors, but there is a suggestion to rotate to PetroChina due to high ownership and valuations.

Valuation Comparison

Company	Ticker	KE Rating	Price (29-Jul)	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USDm)	90D T/O (USDm)	P/E 2014E	P/E 2015E	EV/EBITDA 2014E	EV/EBITDA 2015E	RoE %	P/B (X)	Yield %
PetroChina - H	857 HK	Buy	10.44	11.50	232.8	89.2	11.4	10.3	5.6	5.0	11.3	1.3	3.9
Sinopec - H	386 HK	Hold	7.60	6.85	101.4	73.5	10.2	9.6	5.0	4.7	11.7	1.2	3.9
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	Hold	13.82	14.34	79.6	83.3	9.0	8.5	3.8	3.5	15.1	1.3	3.9
ONGC	ONGC IN	NR	394.85	NR	56.2	50.9	10.4	9.3	4.8	4.3	18.0	1.8	3.0
Reliance Industries	RIL IN	NR	1,005.60	NR	54.1	72.2	12.4	11.1	8.5	7.3	12.2	1.4	1.0
Cairn India	CAIR IN	Buy	314.75	443.00	9.8	17.2	4.4	4.1	3.0	2.8	23.6	4.4	4.4
BPCL	BPCL IN	NR	574.75	NR	6.9	18.6	14.2	12.6	7.2	6.8	14.4	2.0	2.2
HPCL	HPCL IN	NR	383.30	NR	2.2	13.2	8.9	7.3	6.6	6.1	9.6	0.9	3.1
Petronas Gas	PTG MK	Hold	23.56	23.50	14.7	6.1	28.0	27.0	15.7	15.1	16.1	4.3	2.5
Petron Corp	PCOR PM	Buy	12.30	16.80	2.7	1.4	15.4	7.9	10.2	6.1	6.7	1.2	0.4
Phoenix Petro	PNX PM	Buy	6.00	7.05	0.2	0.1	9.7	8.2	9.2	8.1	13.9	1.2	1.7
PTT Global Chemical PCL	PTTGC TB	Buy	66.25	87.00	9.4	25.3	9.0	8.4	6.5	6.2	13.4	1.2	4.9
PTT PCL	PTT TB	Buy	331.00	395.00	29.7	36.4	9.3	8.9	5.4	5.0	14.0	0.9	3.1
Thai Oil PCL	TOP TB	Sell	52.25	65.00	3.3	5.8	11.9	10.5	7.2	6.7	9.7	1.1	4.0
Asian Refiners average	-	-	-	-	-	-	17.2	13.5	8.5	6.8	9.3	1.4	3.2
Asian E&P average	-	-	-	-	-	-	11.8	11.3	4.3	4.2	13.5	1.5	4.0
Global Oil Major average	-	-	-	-	-	-	11.3	10.9	4.3	4.2	13.5	1.5	4.0