2024-08-04-UNDP-多速增长又回来了_但存在财政盲点（英）_16页_1mb

Summary of "Multi-Speed Growth is Back, with a Fiscal Blind Spot"

After a period of synchronized global economic growth following the pandemic, the world is returning to a multi-speed recovery pattern, with significant divergence in growth rates and poverty outcomes. This report highlights uneven economic performance and persistent challenges in reducing poverty, especially in developing economies.

Growth Patterns

• Globally: 68 developing economies grow at over 4 percent, with an average of 5.4 percent in 2024. Growth is significantly higher in regions like South Asia (5.2 percent average through 2026) and Sub-Saharan Africa (4.4 percent), compared to advanced economies' slower rate of about 1.5 percent.
• Development Stages: Countries are classified into acceleration (>4% growth), muddling through (2-4% growth), and mitigation (<2% growth). Notably, 68 developing countries are in acceleration, while only a small number of advanced economies show similar trends.

Poverty Projections

• Despite economic recovery, poverty reduction is minimal. By 2026, extreme poverty (living on less than $2.15 a day) is expected to decrease from 8 percent pre-pandemic to 7.2 percent, but overall poverty rates remain high, with 18.9 percent living below $3.65 a day projected by 2026.
• Low-income countries and least developed economies show slight improvements in poverty incidence due to growth, but high-poverty areas in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa see limited progress. Growth benefits are unequal, with the poorest segments not sharing in the gains.

Fiscal and Financial Challenges

• High levels of debt exacerbate economic constraints. Net interest payments as a share of revenue increased from 27 countries a decade ago to 49 now, with Sub-Saharan Africa disproportionately affected.
• Debt distress and default risks are elevated, particularly in low-income countries. Reduced access to affordable financing hampers investments in health, education, and climate mitigation.
• By 2026, fiscal pressures could worsen trade-offs between debt servicing and development goals.

Broader Implications

• The multi-speed growth pattern is not inclusive or sustainable enough to advance the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development effectively.
• There is a critical need for policy interventions, including improved domestic resource mobilization, debt relief, and multilateral cooperation to address fiscal blind spots and promote equitable development.

Key Conclusions

In summary, while some regions exhibit robust economic growth, the overall trajectory underscores slow and uneven poverty reduction, posing a risk to SDG targets without concerted action on fiscal and financial reforms.