斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所-Reassessing-CBRN-Threats-in-a-Changing-Global-Environment_66页_1mb

Summary of Reassessing CBRN Threats in a Changing Global Environment

Core Content

This report, edited by Fei Su and Ian Anthony, published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in June 2019, reassesses the evolving threats posed by Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) weapons in a rapidly changing global environment. It highlights the increasing use of CBRN materials by both state and non-state actors, the challenges in international cooperation, and the need for a renewed focus on arms control and security frameworks.

Main Views

• CBRN Threats Are Evolving: The use of CBRN materials is becoming more sophisticated and widespread, with implications for national security and international stability.
• Chemical Weapons Remain a Concern: Despite the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and its implementation, chemical weapons are still used in conflicts and targeted assassinations, highlighting the need for stronger enforcement and cooperation.
• Nuclear Risks in East Asia Are Rising: The modernization of nuclear arsenals by China and Russia, along with North Korea’s nuclear programme, poses significant strategic risks, especially for Japan.
• International Cooperation Is Crucial: Addressing CBRN threats requires collaboration across regions and sectors, including forensic science, legal frameworks, and intelligence sharing.
• CBRN Incidents Require Multidisciplinary Responses: The complexity of CBRN incidents necessitates a coordinated approach involving multiple state agencies and international bodies.

Key Information

Part I: Responding to the Threat of CBRN Use – The Case of Chemical Weapons

• Recent CBRN Incidents: The report discusses several high-profile incidents, including the 1994 and 1995 sarin attacks in Japan by the Aum Shinrikyo cult, the 2017 VX attack on Kim Jong Nam in Malaysia, and the 2018 novichok poisoning of Skripal in the UK.
• Dual-Use Nature of CBRN Materials: Chemical and biological substances are often accessible through the healthcare and industrial sectors, making them vulnerable to misuse.
• Challenges in CBRN Control:
  • Verification: The OPCW faces challenges in verifying the compliance of states with the CWC.
  • National Implementation: Less than 60% of Asian countries have implemented the minimum national measures required under the CWC.
  • Attribution: Identifying the perpetrators of CBRN attacks remains difficult.
  • Universality: North Korea, one of the few countries not a party to the CWC, remains a significant concern due to its lack of transparency and the difficulty in verifying its chemical weapon declarations.
• Role of Forensic Science: Forensic teams are essential in investigating CBRN incidents, particularly in collecting and analyzing evidence.
• Need for Legal Frameworks: International legal mechanisms, such as the European Union's Directive 2017/541, are important for promoting cooperation and preventing CBRN terrorism.

Part II: Nuclear Weapons/Risks: Back to Geopolitics

• Nuclear Risks in East Asia: The region faces heightened nuclear risks due to the modernization of nuclear arsenals by China and Russia, and the instability caused by North Korea’s nuclear programme.
• Strategic Stability Concerns: The deterioration of US-Russia-China strategic relations and the withdrawal from the INF Treaty raise concerns about regional and global security.
• Extended Deterrence and Japan’s Security: Japan is particularly concerned about the credibility of the US extended deterrence, especially in light of North Korea’s nuclear capabilities and the modernization of China and Russia's arsenals.
• North Korea’s Nuclear Programme: North Korea's nuclear programme is a significant threat, but its nuclear disarmament is unlikely without intrusive verification and monitoring.
• Regional Cooperation and Nuclear Security: The report emphasizes the importance of regional cooperation in nuclear security, including export controls, information sharing, and the development of a nuclear forensics library.

Conclusion

• Urgent Need for Action: The report concludes that the international community must address the gaps in CBRN control and cooperation, particularly in verification, attribution, and legal implementation.
• Enhancing Security Frameworks: Strengthening existing international instruments, such as the CWC and nuclear non-proliferation treaties, is essential for global security.
• CBRN Cooperation as a Confidence-Building Measure: The report suggests that cooperation on CBRN threats can serve as a confidence-building measure among stakeholder countries, especially in the chemical, biological, and radiological domains.

Key Recommendations

• Strengthen CBRN Forensic Capabilities: Countries should invest in forensic science and evidence collection to better respond to CBRN incidents.
• Promote International Legal Cooperation: Enhancing legal frameworks and international collaboration is necessary to prevent and combat CBRN terrorism.
• Ensure Consensus in OPCW: The OPCW must maintain impartiality and transparency in its investigations to restore confidence among states.
• Enhance Nuclear Security Measures: Regional cooperation, including information sharing and capacity building, is crucial for preventing the illicit trade of CBRN materials and weapons.
• Address Geopolitical Risks: The report calls for addressing the geopolitical implications of nuclear and CBRN threats, particularly in East Asia.

Contributors and Support

• The report was supported by the Government of Japan and features contributions from experts in various fields, including law, policy, and science.
• It includes insights from a 2019 SIPRI expert workshop on CBRN threats and their implications for East Asia, attended by a wide range of participants from different countries and organizations.

Abbreviations

This report underscores the critical importance of international cooperation, legal frameworks, and scientific advancements in addressing the complex and evolving CBRN threat landscape.