20260323-招银国际-巨子生物-02367.HK-Recovery_expected_in_2026E_5页_742kb

Giant Biogene (2367 HK) Summary

Core Content

Giant Biogene, listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, reported revenue of RMB5,519 million and attributable net profit of RMB1,915 million for FY25, reflecting a slight decline in both metrics compared to the previous year. The company is expected to recover in 2026E, driven by enhanced brand promotion for KOMFYMED and Collgene, an expanded product portfolio, and the commercialization of newly approved Class III injectables. Despite intensified competition and higher marketing costs, the company maintains a "BUY" rating, as it anticipates a gradual easing of earnings pressure and long-term growth from injectables.

Key Financial Highlights

• Revenue: RMB5,519 million (FY25), with a YoY growth of -0.4%. Expected to grow by 10.1% in 2026E, 12.1% in 2027E, and 10.5% in 2028E.
• Attributable Net Profit: RMB1,915 million (FY25), with a YoY growth of -7.2%. Expected to increase by 2.6% in 2026E, 12.1% in 2027E, and 10.5% in 2028E.
• P/E Ratio: 14.7 (FY26E), 13.1 (FY27E), and 11.9 (FY28E).
• Net gearing: -56.5% (FY24A), -63.4% (FY25A), and -66.2% (FY26E).
• Target Price (TP): HK$38.70 (revised from HK$53.89), implying a 19x P/E for 2026E.

2025 Performance

• KOMFYMED: Revenue of RMB4,470 million, down 1.6% YoY, with a significant 22% drop in 2H25 due to external headwinds.
• Collgene: Revenue of RMB918 million, up 9.2% YoY, but growth was impacted by reduced collaboration with top livestreamers and contraction in offline distribution.
• Offline Direct Sales: Increased by 32% YoY to RMB225 million, contributing 4.1% of total revenue, with expansion in KOMFYMED's offline stores and professional skincare and mass-market channels.

2026E Recovery Drivers

• Product Launches: New products like KOMFYMED Focus Cream 2.0, new Focus and Regular series additions, and Collgene products.
• Brand Promotion: Increased investment to restore sales momentum.
• Class III Injectables: Approval in Oct 2025 and Jan 2026, with commercialization expected to start in 2Q26E. These are anticipated to become a key growth driver in the medium to long term.
• Market Expansion: Entry into Watsons in Singapore and Malaysia, duty-free shops in Korea, and online channels in North America.

Financial Metrics

• Gross Margin: Declined to 80.3% in FY25, from 81.3% in FY24A, primarily due to changes in product mix.
• Net Margin: Declined to 35.5% in FY25, from 38.8% in FY24A.
• ROE: 22.5% (FY25), down from 40.3% (FY23A) and 35.9% (FY24A).
• Net Debt to Equity: -0.6 (FY25), indicating a strong equity position.
• Current Ratio: 11.3 (FY25), showing strong liquidity.

Share Performance

• Market Cap: HK$32,876.8 million.
• Average 3-month Turnover: HK$179.9 million.
• 52-week High/Low: HK$84.90 / HK$29.22.
• Total Issued Shares: 1,070.9 million.
• Share Repurchases: Cumulative ~HK$322 million since 9 Dec 2025, indicating management confidence in long-term prospects.

Analyst Ratings and Valuation

• CMBIGM Rating: BUY, with a target price of HK$38.70.
• DCF Valuation: Equity value of HK$41,441 million, based on a WACC of 10.6% and a terminal growth rate of 3.0%.
• Sensitivity Analysis: Shows how the target price changes with different WACC and terminal growth assumptions.

Risk and Disclaimer

• The report is not tailored to individual investors and should not be considered as investment advice.
• There are risks associated with investing in securities, and actual outcomes may differ from projections.
• CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the U.S. and may have conflicts of interest.

Contact Information

• Analysts: Jill WU, Cathy WANG, Miao ZHANG
• CMB International Global Markets Limited: Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong. Tel: (852) 3900 0888. Fax: (852) 3900 0800.

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