2023-11-16-莱坊-UK_Student_Housing_Market_Update_Q3_2023_3页_575kb

报告摘要

UK Domestic: Acceptances for 18-year-olds slightly decreased by 2% YoY but remain 16% higher than 2019 levels and above longer-term trends. Total acceptances for all ages/domiciles sit near 494,000, with 36% of 18-year-olds accepted. Non-EU international acceptances fell 1% but are 25% higher than pre-Covid 2019.
International: Remains a key demand driver (China, India, Hong Kong top sources). Total student numbers support Purpose-Built Student Accommodation (PBSA) demand.

Strong Investment: Q3 saw > £1bn traded (23% YoY increase). YTD total surpassed £2.16bn, significantly lower than 2022 YTD but less severe adjustment due to the prior year's large deal (Sph Portfolio). Traded volume is on track to hit £3.2bn year-end.
Transactions: Investment activity remains healthy with diverse deal types engaging investors (portfolio sales, development funding, operational sales).
Yields: Sector yields (majority in 3-5% range) are resilient compared to other real estate, though regional differences exist, indicating slight softening in key London assets post-November base rate hold. Forward funding and joint ventures are gaining favour due to higher debt costs. Strong funding deals signal industry resilience and investor confidence.
**Market Valuation:**PBSA market valued at £85.8bn for 2023. Estimated to grow to £104bn by 2028, assuming modest 2% rental growth.

Major Acquisition/Turnover: Savills Investment Management acquired three assets from Vita Group (Warwick, Edinburgh, Belfast) for ~£300m.
Developments: Cain International/Olympian Homes secured funding for two major assets (£150m). These include Cirrus Point (Leeds - ~660 beds, tallest PBSA in world), and Rialto House (York - ~275 beds). Also, BlackRock/Mannerr acquired a Leeds asset for £72m (369 beds).
Investor Focus: Investors continue to target the PBSA sector for the long-term ahead despite subdued volumes.

Monetary Policy: Base rate held steady at 5.25% by the Bank of England. Investors expect rates to remain steady until at least Q3 2024 if inflation trends hold. This stability is expected to bring back a competitive buyer pool into the market in Q4/2024.
Sentiment: Investor sentiment remains strong (79% plan to target PBSA over next 5 years, increased from current investment level).
Opportunity: Direct let, student accommodation continues to be one of the strongest performing living sectors for the next five years according to the Knight Frank survey.

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