20240109-宏源期货-PX_PTA早评_2页_338kb

Market Update Summary

• Crude Oil: WTI and Brent crude prices declined, with WTI down 2% to 707.77 $/bbl (from previous 738.1 $/bbl), and Brent down 0.95% to 761.2 $/bbl (from 895.5 $/bbl on Jan 8). OPEC+ actions contributed to volatility, causing a drop in oil prices.

• PX (Para-Xylene): Spot prices for PX CFR Japan rose 0.31% to 64.1 $/ton, but futures like PX2405 show significant declines, e.g., PX2405 closed at 8,370 $/ton (-178%). Supply improvements from restarts like Guangdong Petrochemical may pressure prices, but demand remains weak due to upcoming downstream shutdowns.

• PTA (Polyethylene Terephthalate Acid): PTA prices fell, with domestic spot at 57,660 CNY/ton (-1.27% on Jan 8 settlement). Supply factors include maintenance at Yisheng Hainan plant (out 3 weeks on 200-tn capacity), and demand wanes as polyester sectors face shutdowns, reducing buying interest. Cross-market weakness from oil prices and reduced terminals support downward trends.

• Other Key Indices: CZCETA contracts showed mixed performance, with主力合约收盘价 down over 2%, and inventories/production loads steady, e.g., polyester and other fiber markets saw slight drops or stability in prices, reflecting overall market bearishness.

• Overarching Trends: Market sentiment is negative, with oil declines leading to broad weakness. Supply-side adjustments and reduced demand across PT2，PX-based industries point to continued downward pressure. Analysts recommend caution due to high risk, with PX and PTA scoring negative (-2).