高盛-关税_去全球化和减碳的成本（英）-2025_49页_1mb

Summary of Goldman Sachs Carbonomics Report

Introduction and Key Findings

The report updates the Carbonomics cost curve for decarbonization technologies, highlighting technological innovation as a key driver of cost reductions. Since 2019, cumulative decarbonization costs for the lower half of the curve have decreased by 45%, due to advancements in batteries, solar, and biofuels. However, deglobalization, tariffs, and economic factors could add 30% to decarbonization costs if local manufacturing is prioritized without global cost competitiveness. Gas price fluctuations also influence outcomes, with lower prices reducing costs but altering switch dynamics between coal, gas, and renewables.

Technological Innovation in Decarbonization

Costs for EV batteries, solar PV, and biofuels have seen significant improvements, with batteries reducing decarbonization costs in transport by over 30% and solar PV decreasing 12% YoY. Conversely, hydrogen-dependent technologies in industry lag, showing minimal progress due to limited adoption and scale. Technological advancements include LFP batteries dominating storage and ongoing cost deflation in renewables.

Difficulties in Hard-to-Abate Sectors

Industry and heavy transport face substantial challenges, with higher abatement costs due to slow progress in hydrogen-based technologies. Deglobalization pressures and tariff implications exacerbate costs, as local production becomes less competitive. For instance, hydrogen costs are projected to increase 25% to $130/t in 2025.

Effects of Deglobalization and Tariffs

Deglobalization and tariffs could rise decarbonization costs by 30%, primarily because clean technologies like solar panels and batteries are manufactured cheaply in China. Average import tariffs of 115% for the US/EU are needed to match Chinese supplier costs, widening disparities between cheapest imports and local production. Tariff policies, such as those in the US and EU, aim to protect domestic industries but increase costs and competition.

Economic Sensitivity to Energy Prices

Lower gas prices could reduce decarbonization costs by 20% through cheaper coal-to-gas switching, offsetting some renewable economics impacts, though higher gas prices increase reliance on renewables and impact coal alternatives.

Sector-Specific Analysis

• Transport: Advances in EV batteries drive down costs for passenger cars, but heavy transport lags. Biofuels and SAF cost reductions partially offset higher costs in heavy sectors.
• Power Generation: Solar and wind costs fell, supported by lower capital costs. Deglobalization affects supply chains, with local production adding a 25% premium to costs.
• Industry: Decarbonization remains costly, with hydrogen technologies and CCUS facing integration challenges.
• Buildings: Heat pumps reduce costs more than hydrogen boilers due to policy support, with reallocation to cheaper technologies lowering overall costs.

Overall Impact

The decarbonization push is accelerated by tech innovation but constrained by economic and trade barriers. Global coordination and integrated policies are crucial for balancing cost efficiency with environmental goals.