2025-05-26-科尔尼-全球经济进入不确定时代_23页_1mb

Global Economic Outlook 2025–2027 Summary：

1. Growth Outlook: Global growth is projected to average 2.5% over 2025-2027, down from 2.8% previously, driven by US tariffs, geopolitical risk, and policy uncertainty. The baseline suggests a slowdown within this trend, declining to ~2.3% in 2025/2026 before rebounding modestly to 2.9% in 2027. Forecasts are volatile, acknowledging high uncertainty.

2. Regional Growth:

   • Middle East & Africa (MEA): Fastest-growing region, average ~3.6% (led by UAE, Saudi Arabia).
   • Asia & Australasia: High growth estimated at ~3.5%.
   • Americas: Growth ranges from ~1.3% to potentially -3.8%, significantly lower than previous projections. Argentina shows strong potential.
   • Europe & Eurasia: Slowest region, average projected ~1.2%.

3. Challenges & Uncertainties:

   • Geopolitical Risk: Frequent conflicts, recalibrations leading to fragmentation.
   • Industrial Policy & Tariffs: Protectionist measures proliferating globally, with significant impact on trade and investment. US actions cited particularly.
   • Institutional Stability: Risks from declining trust, governance failures, corruption.
   • Technological Disruption: Both opportunities (AI, quantum computing, renewables) and threats (force displacement, crypto risks).
   • Environmental Degradation: Climate crisis posing direct economic and supply chain risks.

4. Inflation: Projected to decrease overall (average historically-high rates), averaging ~2.2% in developed and ~4.0% in emerging markets by 2025-2027. Tariffs are noted as "moderating" disinflation.

5. Key Headwinds:

   • Supply chain stress/adjustment due to fragmentation, tariffs, investment decline.
   • Reduction in R&D budgets slowing potential technological gains.
   • Labor markets facing skills shortages and displacement risks from AI/automation.
   • Climate change exacerbating inequality and acting as a growth drag.

6. Sectoral Impact (Scenarios Highlight):

   • Construction: Highly indirect impact, heavily influenced by broader investment uncertainty.
   • Automotive: Direct hit from tariffs, projected decline (up to -1.8% in 2025). AI/motorbikes generally less impacted initially.
   • Textiles & apparel: Vulnerable to demand decreases & price increases due to imported inputs or tariff impact.

7. Scenario Analysis: Four scenarios (Rewiring & Resilience, Eroded Foundations, System Breakdown, Turning Inward) explore the impact of varying degrees of fragmentation, institutional stability, geo-political risk, and technological repercussions, yielding output ranges from -1.8% to a possible peak above baseline in the most optimistic scenario.

8. Business Implications & Strategy:

   • Diversify Operations: Reduce risk from trade/tariffs by expanding strategic partnerships globally (e.g., towards ASEAN, South America).
   • Monitor & Leverage Industrial Policies: Track subsidies, tariffs, and regional incentives closely.
   • Invest in Innovation & Workforce Reskilling: Leverage AI/potential green tech; prepare for automation through upskilling/reskilling to maintain competitiveness.

The report concludes that uncertainty is extremely high, and navigating this requires adapting to fragmentation, fostering resilience, and engaging strategically with evolving policies and markets.