20260115-招银国际-极兔速递-W-01519.HK-Share_swap_with_SF_to_help_expand_new_markets_6页_654kb

J&T Express (1519 HK) Summary

Core Content

J&T Express has announced a share-swap agreement with SF (6936 HK / 002352 CH), marking a significant strategic partnership aimed at expanding operations in new markets and enhancing product offerings. This collaboration allows J&T to leverage SF's existing infrastructure in overseas markets, including first-mile logistics, cross-border line haul, warehouses, and parcel lockers, to accelerate growth in emerging markets as well as in Europe and the US. In return, SF will gain access to J&T's non-e-commerce delivery services in China, thereby diversifying its portfolio.

Key Points of the Share Swap

• J&T's Subscription to SF Shares:
  J&T will subscribe for 225.9 million H-shares of SF at HK$36.74 per share, totaling HK$8.3 billion.
  This represents a 3.9% premium over SF's closing price on 14 January and is equivalent to ~13x 2026E P/E.
  Upon completion, J&T will own 4.29% of SF's enlarged total shares.

• SF's Subscription to J&T Shares:
  SF will subscribe for 822 million B shares of J&T at HK$10 per share, representing a ~14.8% discount to J&T's closing price on 14 January.
  The subscription price is ~19x 2026E P/E, and SF's total holdings in J&T will increase to 10% of the total shares.

• Lock-up Period:
  Both companies have agreed to a five-year lock-up period, indicating a long-term commitment to the partnership and providing market confidence.

Investment Recommendation

• Maintain BUY:
  The target price remains at HK$13.40, with an upside of 14.1% from the current price of HK$11.74.
  The continued BUY recommendation is based on the following factors:
  1. J&T's strong competitive edge and market share growth potential in Southeast Asia (32.8% in 1H25).
  2. Good growth prospects in new markets such as Brazil and the Middle East.
  3. Potential new business opportunities arising from the strategic cooperation with SF.

Financial Overview

Valuation Analysis

• Target Price: HK$13.40 (based on SOTP valuation).
• Valuation by Market:
  • Southeast Asia (SEA):
    Target multiple of 14x, which is ~80% premium to the average of global integrated logistics operators (7.7x).
    Reflects J&T's strong pricing power and market share gains.
  • China:
    Target multiple of 6.5x, in line with major peers.
    Expected support from the "anti-involution" campaign.
  • New Markets:
    Target multiple of 20x, reflecting strong growth potential in Latin America and the Middle East.

Share Performance

Shareholding Structure

• Jet Jie Li: 11.1% ownership.

Market Capitalization and Financials

• Market Cap (HK$ mn): 103,454.8
• Avg 3 mths t/o (HK$ mn): 237.1
• 52w High/Low (HK$): 12.00 / 4.68
• Total Issued Shares (mn): 8,812.2

Valuation Breakdown (2026E)

Analyst Certification

The analyst certifies that all views in the report reflect personal opinions and that no part of the compensation is related to the specific views expressed.

CMBIGM Ratings

• BUY: Potential return of over 15% over next 12 months.
• HOLD: Potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months.
• SELL: Potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months.
• NOT RATED: Not rated by CMBIGM.
• OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark.
• MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark.
• UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark.

Disclaimer

• There are risks involved in transacting in any securities.
• The report is not tailored for individual investors.
• Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
• The information is for educational purposes only, and investors are advised to consult professional financial advisors.