2025-06-16-花旗集团-科尔布恩（COLBUN）_科尔布恩（COLBUN.SN）_为不确定环境做好准备_16页_507kb

Summary of Colbún (COLBUN.SN) - Citigroup Research

Recommendation: Citigroup maintains a Buy recommendation, increasing the target price from ChP 142 to ChP 166 per share.

Key Drivers:

• New renewable assets (wind farms and battery storage) expected to increase Chile's capacity by 18%, boosting output and reducing nodal risk.
• Cheaper fuel costs through increased use of Argentine gas, along with higher unregulated sales, improving EBITDA and Net Income estimates.
• Geographic diversification and a net spot selling position providing a natural hedge against hydrological deterioration.

Financial Highlights:

• EBITDA and Net Income for 2025/2026 show higher growth (7.2% and 13.6% CAGR), driven by operational improvements and revised estimates.
• Attractive dividend yield of 5.5%, with room for re-rating based on peer comparison.

Risks:

• Hydrological volatility, rising fuel prices, regulatory changes, and capital structure inefficiencies.
• Long-term electricity price assumptions in Chile are key uncertainties.

Colbún is expanding to 8 GW of capacity by 2030 and maintains a strong market position in Chile, despite inherent risks.