2025-06-16-世界银行-越早越好_尼日尔抗旱现金转移（英）_66页_892kb

Policy Research Working Paper 11138
The Earlier the Better?
Cash Transfers for Drought Response in Niger

Summary

This paper examines the impact of varying cash transfer timing in response to drought-induced seasonality in Niger. Using a three-arm randomized controlled trial, the authors compare (1) traditional lean season transfers (July–September 2022), (2) early smaller transfers (March–June 2022), and (3) early larger transfers (March–September 2022).

Key findings show that large early transfers significantly improve food security and consumption before and during the lean season compared to traditional responses. For instance:

• Households receiving early transfers saw a 8% increase in food consumption and 17.6% higher monthly food intake than those receiving traditional transfers.
• Psychological well-being also improved significantly, with higher life satisfaction and reduced depressive symptoms.
• Early transfers reduced borrowing during the pre-lean season (24–38% reduction), though households still incurred substantial debt.

However, these benefits diminish post-harvest, and long-term effects on livelihoods are limited. The findings suggest that early, sufficiently large cash transfers can mitigate short-term drought effects but do not significantly alter medium-term outcomes or resilience beyond the lean season. Policy implications highlight the importance of timely interventions in contexts of high seasonality and constrained credit access.