2022-02-14-瑞士信贷集团-美国交易所和电子交易平台_数字货币化是持久增长的催化剂_108页_10mb
报告摘要
U.S. Exchanges & Electronic Trading Platforms Summary
Core Content
The report discusses the evolving role of U.S. exchanges and electronic trading platforms in the financial services industry, emphasizing the shift toward data and technology as key drivers of growth and profitability. It outlines the impact of secular tailwinds such as datafication, revenue diversification, electronification, and globalization, which are transforming the landscape of exchange services. The report also evaluates the near-term and long-term growth opportunities, with a focus on revenue streams from data, analytics, and technology, as well as transactional services.
Key Drivers
1. Data and Technology
- Datafication: Increasing reliance on data analytics to optimize investment decisions.
- Revenue Diversification: Exchanges are reducing their exposure to market cycles by expanding into data and technology services.
- Electronification: The migration of voice trading to digital platforms is enhancing market efficiency and creating new revenue opportunities.
- Market Digitization: Platforms like NDAQ and ICE are leveraging digitization to offer end-to-end solutions.
- Active-to-Passive Strategies: Growth in passive investing is driving demand for index solutions and analytics.
- ESG & Sustainability: Incorporating ESG factors into investment management is increasing demand for data and analytics.
- Globalization: Cross-asset volatility and investor overlap are creating new market opportunities.
2. Volumes and Volatility
- Near-Term (12 Months): Volume growth is expected to remain elevated due to interest rate hikes and market volatility, with NDAQ, ICE, and CBOE benefiting from increased cash equity and options trading.
- Long-Term (3 Years): Futures and fixed income markets are expected to see structural tailwinds, with ICE, CME, and BGCP (if FMX launches) as key beneficiaries. Fixed income electrification is also a major growth driver for TW, MKTX, and BGCP.
Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Company | Revenue Exposure | 2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDAQ | 75% | 14% | 9% | 8% | 8% |
| ICE | 50% | 10% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| CBOE | 40% | 14% | 10% | 9% | 9% |
| TW | 35% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 5% |
| MKTX | 30% | 13% | 8% | 4% | 4% |
| CME | 20% | 7% | 4% | 7% | 6% |
| BGCP | 5-10% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% |
Transactional Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Company | Revenue Exposure | 2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDAQ | 25% | 15% | 3% | 4% | 4% |
| ICE | 50% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 7% |
| CBOE | 60% | 19% | 4% | 6% | 3% |
| TW | 65% | 29% | 22% | 14% | 12% |
| MKTX | 70% | -5% | 15% | 13% | 13% |
| CME | 80% | -3% | 13% | 8% | 7% |
| BGCP | 90-95% | 3% | 8% | 12% | 11% |
Company Ratings and Investment Summary
| Company | Rating | Current Price | Target Price | Total Return | Investment Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq (NDAQ) | Outperform | $172 | $225 | 32% | Maximizing digital exhaust monetization through strategic data and technology pivot; expanding SaaS recurring revenues |
| Tradeweb (TW) | Outperform | $83 | $104 | 25% | Near pure play on fixed income; electronification to drive sustained 3-5 year volume growth |
| ICE | Outperform | $126 | $160 | 28% | Fixed income data and technology services benefitting from electronification; expanding proprietary data and analytics |
| BGCP | Outperform | $4 | $7 | 66% | Fenics technology platforms underappreciated; public valuation does not reflect private market value |
| CBOE | Neutral | $120 | $144 | 21% | Strategic initiatives to improve competition through acquisitions and tech investment; execution uncertainty could weigh on results |
| MKTX | Neutral | $378 | $412 | 10% | Pure play on fixed income; volumes decelerated due to muted volatility/turnover |
| CME | Neutral | $241 | $258 | 10% | Macroeconomic headwinds to deliver energy and financials volume growth; Google partnership could enhance data and analytics growth |
Key Growth Opportunities
- Data and Technology: Exchanges that can effectively monetize data and technology will see durable revenue growth and higher valuations.
- Fixed Income Electronification: Platforms like TW, MKTX, and BGCP are well-positioned to benefit from the increasing adoption of electronic trading in fixed income markets.
- Marketplace and Infrastructure Networks: These networks are crucial for aggregating liquidity, improving price discovery, and enabling efficient trade execution and settlement.
- Recurring Revenue Streams: SaaS and PaaS models are becoming more prevalent, with NDAQ and ICE leading in this area.
Strategic Initiatives and M&A Activity
- NDAQ: Expanding solutions segment to include index, analytics, and RegTech services.
- ICE: Expanding into fixed income data and digitizing workflows; leveraging Mortgage Technology.
- CBOE: Diversifying revenue through acquisitions and tech investments.
- MKTX: Increasing utilization of automation technology in fixed income trading.
- BGCP: Leveraging Fenics technology to create new revenue opportunities.
Conclusion
The U.S. exchanges and electronic trading platforms are transitioning from traditional market operators to data and technology providers, driven by secular tailwinds such as datafication, electronification, and globalization. This shift is creating new revenue streams, enhancing operating leverage, and enabling durable growth. Companies like NDAQ, ICE, and TW are best positioned to capitalize on these trends, while others like CBOE and MKTX face challenges due to market volatility and competitive dynamics.
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