德银-南非-贵金属行业-南非4季度黄金价格更新：涡流稳定-20171012-Deutsche_Bank-SA_GoldsSA_Gold_4Q17_price_update,steady_eddy_30页-3mb
报告摘要
Summary of SA Gold Sector Analysis (4Q17)
Core Content
This document outlines the analysis and updates for South African gold sector companies, including AngloGold Ashanti, Gold Fields, Harmony, and Sibanye Gold, as of 12 October 2017. The focus is on gold price forecasts, company-specific changes in recommendations and price targets, financial forecasts, and valuation metrics.
Main Points
- Gold Price Outlook: The USD-gold price is expected to remain around US$1,250/oz for 2017E-2019E, reverting to a long-term real price of US$1,300/oz by 2023 (US$1,421/oz nominal).
- Sector Valuation: The sector is valued at 1.1x Price to NPV on DBe and spot, indicating a neutral outlook compared to a previously bearish stance.
- Company-Specific Updates:
- Harmony (HARJ.J): Downgraded to a Sell recommendation from Hold. Price target remains at R20ps, with a 19% downside.
- Sibanye (SGLJ.J): Upgraded to a Hold recommendation from Sell. Price target increased to R15.50ps, with a 3% downside.
- AngloGold (ANGJ.J) and Gold Fields (GFIJ.J): Retained Hold recommendations.
- Financial Forecasts:
- Sibanye's FY17E and FY18E EBITDA forecasts increased by 19% and 18%, respectively, due to updated PGM prices.
- Changes to estimates for AngloGold are minimal, with less than 10% upgrades to FY17E EBITDA forecasts.
Key Information
- Gold Price Forecast:
- Q4-17: US$1,250/oz
- 2018: US$1,240/oz
- 2023 (real): US$1,300/oz
- 2023 (nominal): US$1,421/oz
- Rand-Gold Price Forecast:
- 2018E: R500k per kg (current spot: c.R520k)
- 2019E: R500k per kg
- Valuation Metrics:
- P/E ratio and EV/EBITDA are used for valuation.
- The sector is considered fair value to expensive based on DB forecasts.
- Sibanye has a P/ NPV of 1.4x under spot prices due to its PGM assets.
- AngloGold and Gold Fields are at 0.9x to 1.1x P/ NPV.
- Risks:
- Medium-term caution due to potential downside from real interest rates.
- Commodity price volatility, FX fluctuations, and operational performance.
- Regulatory and labor-related challenges.
- Uncertainty around restructuring and new contracts, such as the move from a Purchase of Concentrate agreement to a tolling contract for Rustenburg Platinum Mines.
- Possible changes in economic environments affecting project approvals and financial performance.
Summary of Changes to Estimates
| Company | Recommendation | Target Price | % Change | Current Price | Price vs Target | Year End | Last Reported FYFY0 EPS | FY1 EPS | FY2 EPS | FY1 EBITDA | FY2 EBITDA | FY1 Prior EBITDA | FY2 Prior EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AngloGold | Hold | 130 | 0% | 126 | +3% | Dec | UScps 35 | (28) | 52 | 1,280 | 1,429 | 1,267 | 1,431 |
| Gold Fields | Hold | 52 | -2% | 54 | -4% | Dec | UScps 24 | 26 | 16 | 1,429 | 1,509 | 1,267 | 1,512 |
| Harmony | Sell | 20 | 0% | 25 | -19% | June | SACps 298 | 141 | (173) | 1,429 | 1,509 | 1,267 | 1,512 |
| Sibanye | Hold | 15.50 | +3% | 16 | -3% | Dec | SACps 258 | (33) | 103 | 10,707 | 11,799 | 7,314 | 9,108 |
Valuation Metrics (DB Forecasts)
| Company | P/ NPV | FY16 P/E | FY17e P/E | FY18e P/E | FY19e P/E | FY16 EV/EBITDA | FY17e EV/EBITDA | FY18e EV/EBITDA | FY19e EV/EBITDA | FY16 Dividend Yield | FY17e Dividend Yield | FY18e Dividend Yield | FY19e Dividend Yield | FY16 Free Cash Flow Yield | FY17e Free Cash Flow Yield | FY18e Free Cash Flow Yield | FY19e Free Cash Flow Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AngloGold | 1.0 | 41.1 | n/a | 21 | 17 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 0.6% | 1.8% | 5.0% | 8.5% | 4.7% | -2.3% | 3.0% | 11.0% |
| Gold Fields | 1.0 | 18 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.8% | 1.6% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 8.5% | -8.5% | 3.1% | 20.9% |
| Harmony | 1.2 | 13.6 | 18.4 | 19 | n/a | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 1.7% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 15.4% | 3.0% | -8.2% | -7.3% |
| Sibanye | 1.0 | 18 | n/a | 27.5 | 16 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 3.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.1% | 2.8% | -11.2% | -2.6% | 2.0% |
| Simple Average | 1.1 | 23 | 13 | 21 | 13 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 1.8% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 7.8% | -5% | -1% | 7% |
Sibanye Gold Investment Thesis
- Outlook: Free cash flow is not expected from any division until 2020E, and the company has a significant debt load of R22bn.
- Risks:
- Restructuring in the South African gold division.
- Operational performance and labor relations.
- Illegal mining at operations.
- Performance of acquired Rustenburg Platinum Mines.
- Uncertainty around the tolling contract with Amplats.
- Potential for further corporate action and project approvals under different economic conditions.
- Valuation: Target price derived from a life-of-mine DCF model with a WACC of 11% for South African mines and 6.5% for Stillwater.
- Forecast Revenue and EBITDA:
- FY17E: 43,185 Rm
- FY18E: 45,082 Rm
- FY19E: 49,461 Rm
- EBITDA increases by 19% and 18% in FY17E and FY18E respectively.
- Debt Levels: Net debt to EBITDA is expected to remain high until 2020E, increasing financial leverage and risks.
Conclusion
The gold sector in South Africa is viewed with a neutral stance, with Sibanye and AngloGold at the center of the analysis. The report highlights the importance of gold price trends, commodity forecasts, and FX movements in shaping the valuation and investment outlook. While Sibanye shows potential for improved financial performance due to higher PGM prices and production ramp-ups, the sector remains cautious due to various risks and the impact of economic conditions.
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