20210609-IMF-Norway_Selected_Issues_14页_1mb

报告摘要

Norway Electric Vehicles, Tax Incentives and Emissions

Overview

Norway’s tax incentives significantly boost electric vehicle (EV) adoption—their market share exceeds 50% in new car sales and 10% overall. These incentives, including VAT exemptions and fee reductions for EVs, contribute to Norway’s climate goals and broadened its goal for 100% electric vehicles for new sales by 2025. However, the environmental benefits and cost effectiveness vary considerably.

STYLIZED FACTS

Ownership: EV market share is highest in Norway due to generous fiscal support, which is regressive (richer households benefit more).
CO2 Emissions: EVs reduced 10% of overall transport emissions since 2010; emission savings per EV are estimated at 1.17 tCO2 per year but decrease with multiple EVs owned.
Tax Revenue: Fiscal incentives cost ~0.26% GDP/year; they are unlikely to be scaled back due to their environmental impact.

ECONOMETRIC RESULTS

Household-level regression models found that EV ownership lowers CO2 emissions significantly by ~1.17 tCO2/year/vehicle.
EVs owned jointly with conventional vehicles yield less emission savings.
This relates to Norway’s high rate of renewable energy use, simplifying EV environmental impacts.

COST EFFECTIVENESS

Fiscal incentives for EVs (VAT exemption and reduced fees) cost ~USD 12,500 per EV and deliver ~USD 710/tCO2, placing them among the most expensive climate policies.
Potential savings can be significantly boosted if tax incentives are recalibrated to target high-emitting cars and promote replacement.

POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Revenue-neutral policy reforms could align emissions, equity, and economic goals.
Suggestions include scrap incentives for polluting cars replaced by EVs, limitations on high-end EVs, and tax measures to replace existing subsidies while maintaining environmental drive.