2025-06-10-Jefferies-2025年6月10日加拿大日报_14页_293kb

Equity Research: Canada Financials

Overview

• Analysis covers banks and insurance companies.
• Recent focus on banks centered on Q2 earnings and early 3Q25 outlook.
• While Q2 credit losses were high, projected Stage 1&2 provisions for 3Q25 are expected to be flat due to higher impaired credit losses counterbalanced by moderating performing loan loss provisions. Valuations remain stable unless recession fears intensify.
• Anticipate continued loan growth in 3Q25 despite economic slowdown concerns.
• Lower rates support margins.

Upcoming Events

• Statistics Canada reports (Building Permits, Sales).
• Retail data release (Wholesale Sales, Motor Vehicle Sales).

Company & Headlines

• CIBC: CEO calls for tax reforms benefiting young Canadians to boost savings for homes, suggesting raising the tax exemption threshold to $75,000.
• Scotiabank: Mandates four-day office return for some staff by September, following other banks.
• US Tax Bill: Concerns about proposed U.S. taxes on foreign investors affecting Canadian wealth managers and potentially raising taxes for Canadian companies.
• Defense Spending: Canada plans to significantly increase defense spending, aiming for the 2% of GDP target this fiscal year, ahead of the G7 summit.

Credit Outlook

• Moderating lending growth likely; impaired loans and provisions expected to rise with slower economy.
• Net interest margins supported by lower rates.
• Banks focus on managing expenses and digital transformation.

Figure Updates

• Charts showing share price performance.

Key Documents

• Recent research (e.g., "Banks 3Q25 Outlook - Credit Scenarios Vary Significantly").